Sunday 13 December 2020

2020 Golf Predictor Betting/Tipping Summary

Another golf year has finished and it's time to report on the 2020 Golf Predictor bets/tips. It was a strange year due to the Coronavirus, which meant a lengthy lay off period, followed by many rearranged and new tournaments. This did not make the job of backing golfers any easier, but I am delighted to report that despite an horrendous first two thirds to the year, I was able to finish very strongly to record a modest profit. The distribution of my winning bets (places/outright wins) during the year is shown below:

2020 bets - Winning bets (Places/Wins)


This clearly shows the aforementioned brutal period up until September and solid finish there after. A similar chart below shows the  amount won with the winning bets over the full year:


2020 bets - Winning bets (Units won)


Based on a one unit each way bet in each case, the basic stats for my year of betting/tipping are as follows:


Bets: 158
Outright Wins 2 Catlin, Ireland (40/1), Rozner, Dubai (60/1)
Places 22 15 full, 7 dead heat
Withdrew 1 Soderberg, Irish Open
Total outlay: 316
Total Win: 336.66
Profit 20.66*
Profit Margin 6.54%


As you can see, despite only two wins and fifteen full places (and seven more partial, or dead heat, places), I still managed to turn a profit in 2020. That is because my betting strategy of predominately backing golfers in the 40/1 to 80/1 range doesn't need a high strike rate to be profitable, as I have demonstrated this year. Picking three or four golfers per event at these odds or above only requires one golfer to place to turn a profit and the occasional win can deliver a serious return. The chart below shows the odds distribution of my bets this year:

2020 bets - Odds Distribution


113 (71.5%) of my bets this year were in the 40/1 to 80/1 range, with just 21 (13.3%) at prices less than that. Of those shorter than 40/1, only 2 (1.3% of total) were less than 30/1 (a couple of 28/1 shots). The remainder of my bets were long shots with the highest price being 150/1.

Interestingly, the breakdown of my wins by tour shows that I landed far more places on the US PGA Tour, but no wins. The converse is true on the European Tour, where despite a measly three places all year, I did also manage to land my two wins at decent enough odds:

2020 bets - Winning bets (Places/Wins by Tour)

That meant that I made almost the same amount off both tours in 2020, as this final chart shows:

2020 bets - Winning bets (Units won by Tour)

The profit this year means that, over the longer term, I remain significantly ahead of the bookies. My performance this year also shows the importance of being in it for the long haul. Everyone has fallow patches, but it is possible to overcome them with patience if you have a decent betting strategy.

*Notes: I stuck with one bookie for convenience. If I used an odds checking site and multiple accounts, I probably would have have increased my profit by around 15 to 20 points.

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