Tuesday, 18 February 2020

2020 WGC - Mexico Championship - Value DFS Picks

Based on the statistics on Golf Predictor for the 2020 WGC - Mexico Championship, here is my analysis of the tournament for DFS (DraftKings) purposes. Although there are some high profile absentees this year, there is still an impressive field teeing it up at Chapultepec. Anyone can pick the top golfers for their line-up, but it's the roster fillers that can make or break your chances. Therefore, I will concentrate on low and mid salary picks and exclude any golfers above $7600. Of course, you are free to disagree and log in to Golf Predictor to make your own informed choices for the event!

Approach

To maximise your scoring potential, it's important to get as many of your line-up performing well as possible. Therefore, I will look for golfers with a good recent record in each of the stats examined. There is no cut at WGC events and lower salaried golfers generally have little or no course or WGC experience. This makes the task more difficult than usual, but for this tournament, the stats I will look at are current form, course/tournament form and similar tournament (WGC) form.

Current Form Golfers

The following list of (mostly European Tour) golfers have relatively good recent records or long cut streaks in their salary bracket:

Zach Murray (Euro Tour) - $6000
Benjamin Hebert (Euro Tour, excluding one event) - $6300
Mike Lorenzo-Vera (Euro Tour, excluding last event) - $6400
Ryan Fox (Euro Tour, excluding one event) - $6400
Marcus Kinhult (Euro Tour, excluding one event) - $6500
Matt Wallace (Euro Tour, excluding one event) - $6600
Carlos Ortiz (excluding one event) - $6600
Lucas Herbert (Euro Tour) - $6700
Jazz Janewattananond - $6700
Brendan Todd - $6800
Lee Westwood (Euro Tour, excluding last event) - $6900 
Matthias Schwab - $6900 
Kurt Kitayama (mostly Euro Tour) - $7200
Robert MacIntyre (Euro Tour, excluding last event) - $7200
Tyrell Hatton (was out injured) - $7400
Corey Connors (excluding last event) - $7500
Victor Perez (Euro Tour) - $7600

Course/Tournament Specialists

Not many golfers below $7600 have good records (or any record!) in their salary bracket at the tournament itself (especially at the course). The few that do are:

Danny Willett (event) - $7000
Francesco Molinari - $7100
Charles Howell III - $7100
Tyrell Hatton - $7400
Graeme McDowell (event) - $7500
Rafa Cabrera Bello - $7600

WGC Performers

Not many golfers below $7600 have good records (or any record!) in WGC events in their salary bracket. Those that do are:

Lucas Glover - $6800 
Lee Westwood - $6900 
Francesco Molinari - $7100
Charles Howell III - $7100
Kevin Kisner - $7200
Kevin Na - $7300
Billy Horschel - $7300
Tyrell Hatton - $7400
Bernd Wiesberger - $7400
Byeong-Hun An - $7500
Graeme McDowell - $7500
Victor Perez (one event - 4th place) - $7600
Rafa Cabrera Bello - $7600

Summary

Hatton appears in all three categories, but he is coming back after a wrist operation so he might be a risky choice. Molinari, Perez, Cabrera Bello, Howell III, Westwood and McDowell all appear in two categories, so they could be worth considering as good low and mid value DFS DraftKings picks this week.


1 comment:

Golf Predictor Guru! said...

Hatton was the star performer of those picked out, with a great T6 after his return from a wrist operation. Cabrera Bello and Westwood also did well, but the rest bombed, finishing well down the field!