Monday, 19 October 2020

2020 - Week 43 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions for this week, The ZOZO Championship @ Sherwood (US PGA Tour) and the Italian Open (European PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. The PGA Tour relocates the event from Japan to California due to the Coronavirus and Tiger Woods will be defending his title at Sherwood Country Club. He is up against a top quality field that includes seventeen* of the top twenty golfers in the world rankings. The line up in Italy is much more modest, as it's not a Rolex Series event this year. However, there is a large number of tour regulars teeing it up at the new course in Brescia.

 

*DJ pulled out beforehand, reducing the number to sixteen.
 

2020 - Week 42 Winners

Adrian Otaegui (ranked 23rd by Golf Predictor) won the Scottish Championship pres. by AXA on the European PGA Tour. The 28 year old Spaniard won his third tour title with a great start and finish at Fairmount St. Andrews. Otaegui opened with a fantastic 62 (-10) and won the title in style with a closing birdie for a 63 on Sunday. That allowed the Spaniard to overturn a four shot overnight deficit and finally record his first stroke play victory by four shots from overnight leader Matt Wallace. Our top ranked player, Lee Westwood, finished in tied 14th and we had eight of the top sixteen plus ties (8/24) in this new event.     


Jason Kokrak (ranked 40th by Golf Predictor) won The CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek on the US PGA Tour. The 35 year old American won his first tour title at the relocated CJ Cup. Indeed it was local knowledge as an MGM sponsored golfer at Shadow Creek which helped Kokrak to finally get over the line on the PGA Tour! He finished strongly with a 64 to blow past overnight leader Russell Henley and beat a stacked field by two shots from Xander Schauffele. Our top ranked player, John Rahm, finished in tied seventeenth and we had seven of the top seventeen plus ties (7/20) in the restricted field event where many of the top players failed to perform.
 

Monday, 12 October 2020

2020 - Week 42 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Scottish Championship pres. by AXA (European PGA Tour) and The CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. The PGA Tour has moved the event from South Korea due to the Coronavirus and and there is a strong, if restricted field for the second week of the new Las Vegas Swing. While sixteen of the top twenty in the world are teeing it up at Shadow Creek, the new Scottish event has a much weaker field for its inaugural staging. Lee Westwood is the only member of the world's top fifty playing in Scotland, along with five others from mostly the lower reaches of the top one hundred.

2020 - Week 41 Winners

Tyrrell Hatton (ranked 4th by Golf Predictor) won the BMW PGA Championship on the European PGA Tour. The 28 year old Englishman fulfilled a boyhood dream by winning the tour's flagship event at Wentworth. Leading by three shots overnight, Hatton was caught early on Sunday after a great start by Victor Perez. However, the Frenchman couldn't keep it going on the back nine and Hatton won comfortably in the end by four shots. Our top ranked player, Patrick Reed, finished strongly with an eagle for tied third and we had ten of the top twenty plus ties (10/23) on the testing Wentworth layout. 

 

Martin Laird (ranked 63rd by Golf Predictor) won the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open on the US PGA Tour. The 37 year old Scot won his fourth tour title in a play-off in Las Vegas. Playing on a sponsor's invitation, Laird beat Matthew Wolff and Austin Cook with a birdie at the second extra hole to take the title for the second time. Our top ranked player, Webb Simpson, finished in tied 13th and we had nine of the top nineteen plus ties (9/23), in a birdie fest where many of the lesser lights came to the fore.

Thursday, 8 October 2020

Tournament Correlations Added to Golf Predictor

I am happy to announce a new tournament correlation capability for Golf Predictor. This relatively computationally intensive capability is not available to users directly, but I can run it to identify tournaments with the most similar (good) results in the same GP Season (calendar year) on the same tour (European/US PGA Tour). For example, this may provide insights into an upcoming tournament by comparing the results for the event in the previous year with the other tour events in the same year. Obviously, this would be more useful for events held on the same course as the previous year. The functionality can either compare the entire fields for correlations or just matching top twenty results. The latter is much more useful as it may identity potential good performers in the upcoming event.

 

When comparing the entire field of the selected event to each of the others, if the same golfer has played in both and his results are similar, they are tagged as correlated. The degree of similarity can be adjusted, but the default is plus//minus ten places, e.g. if player A finished 23rd in the selected tournament, any result from 13th to 33rd in any of the other tournaments will be designated as correlated. For top twenty correlations, the results in both compared events obviously have to be in the top twenty.


When finished comparing each tournament to the selected event, the number of correlated results are totalled and expressed as a percentage of the total number of matches found. For example, if there are fifty golfers found that played in both compared events and of those, fifteen had similar results in both, the correlation factor for those events would be 30%. Higher correlation percentages are easier to find when there are fewer matches, so only tournaments with a significant number of matches should count. Through experimentation, with an appropriate lower limit on the number of matches, correlation percentages of approximately 25-40% seem to be the highest. In events with over 120 golfers, the minimum number of matches needed should be set to around fifty for better results in overall correlations. For top twenty correlations, there should be a lower minimum number (e.g. 12) of matches and a similar minimum correlation percentage to overall correlations. In both cases, the minimum number of matches and the minimum correlation percentage for correlated events can be specified in the system.

 

Once the correlations are found, the system can then examine the field for the upcoming event and find those playing who performed well (i.e, finished in the top twenty) in each correlated event this year (or, if the event hasn't been held yet or isn't being held at all, last year's event). This list of players for each correlated event is then amalgamated and sorted by frequency to find the players with the most matches. This should tell us the most likely golfers to perform well. For example, for the 2020 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, the golfers with the most matches in correlated results found by the system are:


Bryson Dechambeau, 4 

Abraham Ancer, 4 

Hideki Matsuyama, 3 

Chez Reavie, 3 

Patrick Cantlay, 3

 

The correlated events for this tournament, using top twenty correlations, a minimum of 12 matches and a correlation percentage of 25% are:

 

Genesis Invitational

Players Championship

US PGA Championship

3M Open

Safeway Open

Travelers Championship

Open Championship

RBC Heritage 


There may be a case for only including correlated events that are held on the same course in the last two years. Doing so in the above case would exclude the two majors and reduce the matches for all the golfers above by one, except for DeChambeau. It would also bring other golfers on two matches into the equation, including Frittelli, Simpson, Hahn, Dahmen, Homa, English, Redman, Streelman and Zhang.

 

Hopefully, this new correlated tournaments functionality will be useful for most upcoming events. I will probably run it for most events that are held on the same course as the previous year and post the results either on this blog or on social media. Just another way to make Golf Predictor a little better!

 

   

Monday, 5 October 2020

2020 - Week 41 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the BMW PGA Championship (European PGA Tour) and the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (US PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. It's the flagship event on the European Tour this week, but the Coronavirus means no Rory McIlroy this year. However, Patrick Reed and Justin Rose have flown over to tee it up on the testing Wentworth layout. Meanwhile, the first event of the Las Vegas swing this year on the US PGA Tour has got an impressive field, with newly crowned US Open winner Bryson DeChambeau making his first appearance since becoming a major champion. In total, there are eight of the top twenty in the world teeing it up at TPC Summerlin.

 


2020 - Week 40 Winners

Aaron Rai (ranked 26th by Golf Predictor) won the ASI Scottish Open on the European PGA Tour. The 25 year old Englishman won his second tour title in a play-off win over Tommy Fleetwood. After losing a tournament late on last week after leading for a long time, Rai did the opposite this week to finish strongly and set a clubhouse target. Fleetwood birdied the last to catch him and after playing partner Robert Rock bogeyed the same hole, it left just two to fight it out over extra holes. Despite finding sand off the tee, Rai took the title at the first opportunity after Fleetwood missed a short par putt to extend the play-off. Fleetwood was our top ranked player and we had nine of the top nineteen plus ties (9/25*) in the weather affected event.    

 

Sergio Garcia (ranked 11th by Golf Predictor) won the Sanderson Farms Championship on the US PGA Tour. The 40 year old Spaniard won his eleventh tour title by pipping the fast finishing Peter Malnati in Jackson. After Malnati posted -18 with a closing 63, Garcia needed a birdie on the last to prevent a play-off. He duly obliged with a great approach to within three feet to secure his first title since his 2017 Masters triumph. Our top ranked player, Scottie Scheffler, finished in tied 37th and we had only four of the top seventeen plus ties (4/22) in an event that is traditionally hard to call.

 

*Waring was a WD, promoting Rai into the top 25 of the GP Rankings.

 

Monday, 28 September 2020

2020 - Week 40 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the ASI Scottish Open (European PGA Tour) and the Sanderson Farms Championship (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. There is a weaker than normal field playing in Scotland this year, due to the Covid-19 and its impact on the schedule and on travel. Despite that, there is a decent line-up of European players, with seven of the top fifty in the world rankings teeing it up at the Renaissance Club this week. There is also a weak line-up in Mississippi, where only five of the world's top fifty that are playing in the event. Given both fields this week, there is a decent chance of a surprise winner or two! 

 


2020 - Week 39 Winners

John Catlin (ranked 4th by Golf Predictor) won the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open on the European PGA Tour. The 29 year old American won his second tour title in four weeks with a terrific final day at Galgorm Castle. Trailing by three shots overnight, Catlin finished with a bogey free 64 (-6) to overtake long time leader Aaron Rai and hold on for a one shot win. Rai had a chance to catch him, but got a terrible lie for his third shot on the par five finishing hole and had to settle for second place. Home favourite Shane Lowry was our top ranked player, but he disappointingly missed the cut. Overall, we had nine of the top fourteen plus ties (9/21*) in the weak fielded event. 

 

Hudson Swafford (ranked 66th by Golf Predictor) won the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship on the US PGA Tour. The 33 year old American won his second tour title with an up and down performance in the Dominican Republic. Swafford came out of the blocks quickly on Sunday, opening up a four shot lead at one point. He stumbled on the back nine, dropping three shots to let the field back into it. However, a birdie on the seventeenth allowed him to steady the ship and beat Tyler McCumber by a single shot. Our top ranked player, Henrik Stenson, finished in tied 21st and we had eleven of the top twenty one plus ties (11/27) in this second string event.
 

*Soderberg was a WD, promoting Canter into the top 21 of the GP Rankings.

Monday, 21 September 2020

2020 - Week 39 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open (European PGA Tour) and the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship (US PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. After the exertions at Winged Foot, not many big names playing this week. The US PGA Tour heads back to the Dominican Republic for its second tier event where Henrik Stenson is teeing it up surprisingly. No big names this year here in Ireland due to Covid-19, save for Open Champion Shane Lowry, who has flown over after the US Open to play at Galgorm Spa & Golf Resort. 

 

2020 - Week 38 Winners

Bryson DeChambeau (ranked 18th by Golf Predictor) won the US Open on the European/US PGA Tour. The 27 year old American won his first major, with a dominant final day performance at Winged Foot. Trailing Matthew Wolff by two shots overnight, DeChambeau soon overturned the deficit with some impressive, if deliberate play. Indeed, he was the only player under par on Sunday on the demanding layout and the only player to finish under par after 72 holes. In the end, his closing 67 was three shots better than any other score and he won by six shots on -6. Our top ranked player, Dustin Johnson, never  featured at the top end of the leaderboard, but still finished in tied 6th. Overall, we had eleven of the top twenty one plus ties (11/21) in the second major of the year. 


Garrick Higgo (ranked 3rd by Golf Predictor) won the Open de Portugal at Royal Obidos on the European PGA Tour. The 21 year old South African won his first tour title in only his seventh event with an impressive display in Portugal. Higgo played some great golf, not dropping a shot in his last two and a half rounds to win by a shot from Pep Angles. Our top ranked player, last week's winner George Coetzee, finished in tied 3rd and we only had four of the top eighteen plus ties (4/23) in the weak fielded and weather interrupted event. 

 


Monday, 14 September 2020

2020 - Week 38 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the US Open (European/US PGA Tour) and the Open de Portugal at Royal Obidos (European PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. The excitement is mounting for the second major of the disrupted year at Winged Foot in New York. As usual, the layout will be tricked up to challenge the best golfers in the world. No Brooks Koepka, but all the other big names will be looking to write their names in the history books. The field on the European Tour isn't very strong as a result, but last week's winner George Coetzee will fancy a Portuguese double!

2020 - Week 37 Winners

George Coetzee (ranked 7th by Golf Predictor) won the Portugal Masters on the European PGA Tour. The 34 year old South African won his fifth tour title with an impressive final round display in Vilamoura. Coetzee got off to a steady start on Sunday, parring until he birdied the difficult seventh hole. He then gave an superb display of frontrunning, finishing the round in four under par to win by two shots from Laurie Canter. Our top ranked player, late entrant Tommy Fleetwood, finished strongly for tied 3rd and we had seven of the top fourteen plus ties (7/23) at the birdiefest in the Algarve. 

 
Stewart Cink (ranked 79th by Golf Predictor) won the Safeway Open on the US PGA Tour. The 47 year old American won his seventh tour title in California eleven years after his last victory. With his son on the bag, the likeable Cink beat a host of more fancied younger guns to win in Napa. Our top ranked player, Shane Lowry, was one of the many bigger names who didn't perform and missed the cut. Overall, we had only four of the top fourteen plus ties (4/22) in the weak fielded event.

Tuesday, 8 September 2020

2020 - Week 37 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions for this week, the Safeway Open (US PGA Tour) and the Portugal Masters (European PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. The new PGA Tour moves to California for the new 2020/21 season a full three days after the end of the previous season! There aren't many big names teeing it up in the season opener, even though it's the final chance of a tune-up before the US Open next week. The field in Portugal isn't very strong either, but at least they have Tommy Fleetwood playing at the birdie fest in the Algarve.

2020 - Week 36 Winners

John Catlin (ranked 49th by Golf Predictor) won the Estrella Damm N.A. Andalucia Masters on the European PGA Tour. The 29 year old unfancied American won his first tour title with an impressive display at Valderrama. Leading by two strokes overnight, a closing round of four over par 75 was good enough for Catlin to pip Martin Kaymer on the closing hole. The duo had reached the final tee all square, but Catlin took the title with a par to the German's bogey. Strong winds made the already testing Valderrama layout even more challenging and the entire field finished over par. Our top ranked player, Bernd Wiesberger, finished in tied 31st after a poor final round and we had eight of the top seventeen plus ties (8/23*).

Dustin Johnson (ranked 1st by Golf Predictor) won the Tour Championship (and therefore the FedEx Cup) on the US PGA Tour. The 36 year old American capped a great play-off series by taking the lucrative season ending title at East Lake. After a win and play-off loss in the previous two FedEx Cup events, DJ started on -10 in the new handicap system. That proved too much of a head-start to give the hottest player in the world and despite the gap closing somewhat on the back nine Sunday, he won fairly comfortably by three from Xander Schauffele and Justin Thomas. DJ was our top ranked player and we had twelve of the top fifteen plus ties (12/16**) in the restricted field event.  


*Withdrawals mean Syme is promoted to the top 23 of the GP Rankings.

**The handicapped start and small field makes this comparison pretty irrelevant!

Monday, 31 August 2020

2020 - Week 36 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions for this week, the Tour Championship (US PGA Tour) and the the Estrella Damm N.A. Andalucia Masters (European PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. Only the top thirty in the FedEx Cup rankings are playing in the US season finale this week and it's the usual cream of the crop, with some exceptions e.g. Tiger Woods and Brooks Koepka. Theres's a staggered start again this year, with FedEx Cup points leader Dustin Johnson going off on -10 and tapering down from there. Note that Golf Predictor does not factor this into the GP Rankings/GP Score. Meanwhile on the European Tour, no Sergio Garcia or Jon Rahm this year due to Covid-19 and/or the Tour Championship, so there is a weaker field than usual playing on the challenging Valderrama layout.

 

 

2020 - Week 35 Winners

Rasmus Hojgaard (ranked 6th by Golf Predictor) won the ISPS HANDA UK Championship on the European PGA Tour. The 19 year old Dane won his second European PGA Tour event in a play-off with long time leader Justin Walters. Hojgaard finished first and Walters overcame a triple bogey approaching the turn to finish strongly and catch the rising star. It took three extra trips down the famous finishing hole for Hojgaard to see off the South African, who had parred courageously on the previous trip to keep his hopes alive. Our top ranked player, Bernd Wiesberger, finished strongly for tied 5th and we had twelve of the top nineteen plus ties in total (12/24).

 

Jon Rahm (ranked 1st by Golf Predictor) won the second event of the FedEx Cup play-offs, the BMW Championship. The 25 year old Spaniard won his fifth tour title and second in a dramatic finish at Olympia Fields. Rahm overcame a slow start and a brain fart on Saturday (when picked up his ball without marking it for a one shot penalty) to defeat in-form Dustin Johnson on the first extra hole of a play-off. Rahm finished with a brilliant 64 (-6) on the very testing layout and looked to have edged DJ in regulation. However, the American made a long downhill birdie putt to force extra holes. However, Rahm wasn't to be denied and he reciprocated on the same hole in the play-off with an even longer putt to take the title. The real winner was probably the course, which was set up to punish inaccuracy off the tee and punish players on the greens! That resulted in a US Open type week of high attrition, unlike the usual birdie fests on tour. Rahm was our top ranked player and we had eight of the top sixteen plus ties (8/19).

Monday, 24 August 2020

2020 - Week 35 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the ISPS HANDA UK Championship (European PGA Tour) and the BMW Championship (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. It's the second leg of the FedEx Cup play-offs in the US this week and the pressure will be on to qualify for the lucrative Tour Championship next week. As usual, the bigger names are still in FedEx Cup contention in America and twenty five of the top thirty players in the world are teeing it up at Olympia Fields. The field in England is obviously not quite as impressive, with only ten members of the top hundred in the world playing at The Belfry in the latest event on the UK swing.

2020 - Week 34 Winners

Romain Langasque (ranked 16th by Golf Predictor) won the ISPS HANDA Wales Open on the European PGA Tour. The 25 year old Frenchman won his maiden European PGA Tour event with a great final round at Celtic Manor. Starting the final day five shots behind the leader, Langasque put on a brilliant short game display to shoot a bogey free 65 and win by two shots from Sami Valimaki. Our top ranked player, Thomas Pieters, finished in tied 15th and we had nine of the top fifteen plus ties in total (9/20*).

 

Dustin Johnson (ranked 4th by Golf Predictor) won The Northern Trust on the US PGA Tour. The 36 year old American won his twenty second tour title in imperious fashion in Boston. Leading by five shots overnight, Johnson put on a masterclass of front running to decimate the field and win by a massive eleven shots on an unbelievable score of -30. In doing so, Johnson returned to number one in the world rankings and hit the top of the FedEx Cup rankings heading into the second play-off event. Our top ranked player, deposed world number one Jon Rahm, finished strongly for tied 6th and narrowly failed to retain his top spot in the rankings. Overall, many of the stellar field failed to perform and we had only six of the top eighteen plus ties (6/24) in total. 


 *Korhonen withdrew, promoting Campillo into the top twenty of the GP rankings.

Monday, 17 August 2020

2020 - Week 34 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, The Northern Trust (US PGA Tour) and the ISPS HANDA Wales Open (European PGA Tour) , are now available on Golf Predictor. It's the first week of the lucrative FedEx Cup play-offs on the US PGA Tour and once again, there is an impressive line up in New Jersey.  There are forty of the top fifty players in the world teeing it up at TPC Boston this week, which doesn't leave much for the resurrected Wales Open, held at the same course as last week (Celtic Manor).

Sunday, 16 August 2020

2020 - Week 33 Winners

Sam Horsfield (ranked 10th by Golf Predictor) won the Celtic Classic on the European PGA Tour. The 23 year old Englishman claimed his second tour title in three weeks with an impressive final day at Celtic Manor. Trailing by one shot overnight, Horsfield built up a three shot lead before play was suspended due to thunderstorms. Although he was pegged back to one after the restart, Horsfield retained his composure in the dark to win by two shots from Thomas Detry. In doing so, he became the first player to go win-missed-cut-win in successive weeks on the European Tour. Our top ranked player, Thomas Pieters, finished in tied 3rd and we had only four of the top nineteen plus ties (4/21) in this weak fielded and weather affected event.  

Jim Herman (ranked 117th by Golf Predictor) won the Wyndham Championship on the US PGA Tour. The 42 year old American overcame poor recent form to capture his third tour title at Sedgefield Country Club. Herman put on an incredible display of putting and sliced through the filed on the weekend with 61-63 to pip Billy Horschel for the title. Our top ranked player, Webb Simpson finished in tied third and in an event where many of the bigger names failed to perform, we had five of the top fifteen plus ties (5/19) in total.  


Monday, 10 August 2020

2020 - Week 33 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Wyndham Championship (US PGA Tour) and the Celtic Classic (European PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. There are not many big names competing in America this week, with the Wyndham Championship sandwiched between the first major of the year and the play-offs. However, they do have six of the top twenty in the world playing, including some who featured at the PGA Championship last weekend. There is also a host of middle tier guys trying to improve/maintain their place in the FedEx Cup standings ahead of those play-offs. Meanwhile, the European Tour moves on to Wales for the first of two events at Celtic Manor and like previous weeks, the field is rather modest.

2020 - Week 32 Winners

Collin Morikawa (ranked 19th by Golf Predictor) won the US PGA Championship on the European/US PGA Tour. The 23 year old American won his first major title at only his second attempt with an impressive performance at Harding Park. Morikawa finished strongly on Sunday with a 64 (-6) to win by two shots from Paul Casey and overnight leader Dustin Johnson. Highlight of the round was a brilliant tee shot on the short par four sixteenth to seven feet for a timely eagle. Our top ranked golfer, Justin Thomas, never really featured and finished in tied 37th. Overall, we had twelve of the top twenty two plus ties (12/28) in the first major of the year.

Andy Sullivan (ranked 5th by Golf Predictor) won the English Championship on the European PGA Tour. The 33 year old Englishman claimed his fourth tour title with an impressive performance at Hanbury Manor. On a week of low scoring, Sullivan hit the front after a 62 on Friday and although Adrian Otaegui got to within three on Sunday, he eased to a seven shot victory with a strong back nine. Our top ranked player, Lee Westwood, finished in tied 34th and we had only six of the top nineteen plus ties (6/25) in this weak fielded event, where many of the bigger names failed to perform.

Monday, 3 August 2020

2020 - Week 32 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the US PGA Championship (European/US PGA Tour) and the English Championship (European PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. The second major of the year heads to Harding Park for the first major of the COVID affected year. While there aren't many big golfing names teeing it up in England this week, the PGA Championship makes up for it with ninety three of the world's top one hundred golfers. All eyes will probably be on Brooks Koepka and Tiger Woods. The former goes for a rare three PGA Championships in a row while the latter makes only his second post lock-down appearance as he tries to narrow the gap on Jack Nicklaus' impressive major record.

2020 - Week 31 Winners

Justin Thomas (ranked 3rd by Golf Predictor) won the WGC - Bridgestone Invitational on the European/US PGA Tour. The 27 year old American won his second WGC and thirteenth tour title  in Memphis. Thomas and defending champion Brooks Koepka broke clear of a crowded leaderboard late on Sunday and aided by some good fortune, Thomas took a two shot lead to the final hole. Koepka reduced that to one with a birdie on the penultimate hole and with Thomas in some trouble on the last, it looked in the balance. However, Koepka found water on the last and a great pitch by Thomas meant he won by three shots in the end. In doing so, the American became world number one again, deposing Jon Rahm, who was our top ranked player. The Spaniard didn't get going until the final round and finished in tied 52nd. Overall, we had seven of the top fifteen plus ties (7/19) in an event where several of the top players in the world failed to perform.

Sam Horsfield (ranked 21st by Golf Predictor) won the Hero Open on the European PGA Tour. The 23 year old Florida raised Englishman claimed his maiden tour title with an impressive performance at the Forest of Arden. Despite leading after the second and third rounds and getting off to a fast start on Sunday, Horsfield was briefly overtaken by the fast finishing Thomas Detry. However, the distraught Belgian bogeyed the final hole and after Horsfield birdied the penultimate hole to edge ahead, he sealed the win with a closing par. Our top ranked player, Joost Luiten, missed the cut and we had only five of the top fifteen plus ties (5/21) in this weak fielded event, where many of the bigger names failed to perform.

Richy Werenski (ranked 14th by Golf Predictor) won the Barracuda Championship on the US PGA Tour. The 28 year old American secured his first tour title with a strong finish in the modified Stableford event. Werenski holed out for a five point eagle on the sixteen and birdied the final hole to pip Troy Merritt by a single point. Our top ranked player, Branden Grace, had to withdraw while in contention after unfortunately contracting COVID 19. Overall, we had eight of the top nineteen plus ties (8/20*) in the second tier event. 


*Grace withdrawal promoted Merritt into the top 20 of the GP Rankings.

Monday, 27 July 2020

2020 - Week 31 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the WGC - FedEx St. Jude Invitational (European/US PGA Tour), the Hero Open (European PGA Tour) and the Barracuda Championship (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. While there aren't many big golfing names teeing it up in Reno or England this week, the WGC makes up for it with the vast majority of the world's top fifty golfers!

Sunday, 26 July 2020

2020 - Week 30 Winners

Renato Paratore (ranked 36th by Golf Predictor) won the Betfred British Masters on the European PGA Tour. The 23 year old Italian claimed his second tour title with an impressive performance at Close House. Leading after the second and third rounds, Paratore playing well in challenging conditions to win by three shots from Rasmus Hojgaard. Indeed, the young Italian went an impressive 62 holes without a bogey during the event. Our top ranked player, host Lee Westwood, never featured and finished poorly for 70th. Overall, we had only four of the top seventeen plus ties (4/20) in this weak fielded event.

Michael Thompson (ranked 62nd by Golf Predictor) won the 3M Open on the US PGA Tour. The 35 year old American won his second tour title seven years after his first with an assured final day display in Minnesota. Thompson did it in some style at the end, birdieing the last to win by two shots from Adam Long. Our top ranked player, Dustin Johnson, had another poor round Thursday and pulled out afterwards, citing a bad back. Overall, in an event where many of the bigger names failed to perform, we had only five of the top eighteen plus ties (5/22).

Monday, 20 July 2020

2020 - Week 30 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Betfred British Masters (European PGA Tour) and the 3M Open (US PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. The PGA Tour heads back to Minnesota and with only four of the top twenty in the world playing, the field is weaker than most recent weeks on tour. New host Lee Westwood hasn't managed to attract any of the big European names to the event in England, where the tournament has moved back to Close House. With the pandemic travel restrictions and modest prize fund hampering his efforts, it doesn't make the task of forecasting it any easier! 

2020 - Week 29 Winners

Joel Stalter (ranked 42nd by Golf Predictor) won inaugural Euram Bank Open on the European PGA Tour. The 28 year old Frenchman won his first tour title in difficult conditions in Austria. Trailing by four shots overnight, Stalter took advantage of a stalling leader Robin Sciot-Siegrist and won by two shots from Richard Mansell. Our top ranked player, Joost Luiten, had an horrendous ten on day three and a double bogey on the penultimate hole, but still managed to finish tied 6th. Overall, we had eight of the top eighteen plus ties (8/23) in the weak fielded event.

John Rahm (ranked 5th by Golf Predictor) won the Memorial Tournament pres. by Nationwide on the US PGA Tour. The 25 year old Spaniard won his fourth tour title with a mostly dominant display at a difficult Muirfield Village. On a demanding set up in difficult conditions, Rahm built up a commanding lead of eight shots by the turn on Sunday. However, nerves and a two shot penalty for a moving ball meant he limped home in 41 to win by three shots in the end. In doing so, Rahm became world number one for the first time, emulating his great compatriot Seve Ballesteros. Our top ranked player, deposed world number one Rory McIlroy, finished poorly on Sunday for tied 32nd. In an event where many of the bigger names struggled, we had only five of the top eighteen plus ties (5/21) in total.

Monday, 13 July 2020

2020 - Week 29 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Euram Bank Open (European PGA Tour) and the Memorial Tournament pres. by Nationwide (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. Not much travelling on either tour this week as it's the same course (albeit with a different set-up) in America and the European Tour moves one hour down the road in Austria. As usual, there's a strong field for Jack's tournament, with seventeen of the world's top twenty teeing it up in Ohio. As to be expected, the field in Austria is not as stellar, with only one of the top one hundred in the world playing in this new event on the European Tour. Note that this event has been on the Challenge Tour for the past two years.

Sunday, 12 July 2020

2020 - Week 28 Winners

Marc Warren (ranked 69th by Golf Predictor) won the Austrian Open on the European PGA Tour. The 39 year old Scot won his fourth title at the tour comeback event co-sanctioned with the Challenge Tour. Despite having played only one event on tour this year, Warren showed few signs of rust, breaking clear of a logjam at the top to win by a single shot from Marcel Schneider. Our top ranked player, Joost Luiten, finished in tied 18th and despite the poor field and inclement weather on Saturday, we had nine of the top eighteen plus ties (9/22*) in total.

Collin Morikawa (ranked 23rd by Golf Predictor) won the Workday Charity Open on the US PGA Tour. The 23 year old American won his second tour title in a play-off with Justin Thomas. Despite a poor start, it looked like Thomas was home and hosed after a birdie burst around the turn. However, a poor finish meant Morikawa was able to match his seventy two hole total. After halving the first extra hole with two extraordinary birdies, Morikawa prevailed at the third extra hole after Thomas was stymied with his second shot. Our top ranked player, Patrick Cantlay, finished in tied 7th with a strong finish on Sunday. A lot of the bigger names failed to perform and we only had seven of the top seventeen plus ties (7/21).


*Porteous withdrew, promoting Lengden into the top twenty two of the GP Rankings.

Monday, 6 July 2020

Betting Odds Comparison Updated


Field Stats (Odds) page for the Rocket Mortgage Classic, showing pop-up for Webb Simpson

Further to this post, I've resurrected this feature on Golf Predictor. While it looks almost the same as before, I have completely changed the back end to make it much easier to produce. As a quick refresher, this page shows the field ranked by their GP Score and the approximate fair odds they should be at given that GP Score. For tournaments that have bookie prices imported, the bookie rank for each player is also shown in a column along with the best price for him and the bookie(s) offering it in the pop-up on the Odds column. This can be seen in the screenshot above for Webb Simpson ahead of the 2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Some notes on this page:
  1. This is subject to change, but I plan to do this for most US PGA Tour and bigger European Tour events. 
  2. The bookie rank for each player is based on his best price at the time of the comparison (see next point). 
  3. I can only display the odds and comparisons at the beginning of the week (usually Monday afternoon/early evening GMT). I recommend you use a site such as Oddschecker to get the latest best prices for each golfer.
  4. The Odds column is colour coded when the bookie odds are imported for a tournament. This allows you to see good and bad value at a glance. The greener the price is, the more undervalued Golf Predictor thinks the golfer is by the bookies and thus might be a good pick. Conversely, the redder the price, the more overvalued the golfer is. Yellow/gold means the bookies and Golf Predictor agree (more or less) on the ranking for a golfer.
  5. Often, many bookies (can be sixteen or more) have the same top price. This is impractical to display, so if there are more than four, the number of bookies and the name of one taken at random will be shown in the pop-up.
  6. I only can check the prices with a number of European bookies. However, the golfer ranks tend to be very similar for most bookies, so the colour coding could still be useful.
  7. All odds are displayed "X/1". Some best odds at the top end from the bookies may not be like this. For example, odds of 11/2 will be displayed as 5.5/1.

Hopefully, this page will be useful for anyone looking for value bets for a tournament. This information is available for free for all Golf Predictor users, so sign up today to Golf Predictor, the premium professional golf statistics site.

2020 - Week 28 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Austrian Open (European PGA Tour) and the Workday Charity Open (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. It's the return of the European Tour, but it's a poor field that will be teeing it up in Austria this week. No golfer from the top one hundred in the world in Austria, but there is an impressive line-up of stars at the first of a Muirfield Village double header. Ten of the top twenty in the world are teeing it up at Jack's Place, where the set-up will be different from The Memorial next week.

Sunday, 5 July 2020

2020 - Week 27 Winners

Bryson DeChambeau (ranked 2nd by Golf Predictor) won the Rocket Mortgage Classic on the US PGA Tour. The 26 year old American won his sixth tour title with another bludgeoning display in Detroit. DeChambeau sealed his great run of recent form by overtaking the faltering overnight leader Matthew Wolff early on and holding on to win by three shots with a closing 65 (-7). Our top ranked player, Webb Simpson, faded over the weekend from a promising position to finish in tied 8th place. Overall, we had  twelve of the top twenty on plus ties (12/29*) in an event where, like last year, many of the bigger names failed to shine.

There was no event on the European Tour this week.   

*Na withdrew, promoting Wallace into the top 29 of the GP Rankings.