Monday, 30 September 2019

2019 - Week 40 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Mutuactivos Open de Espana (European PGA Tour) and the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (US PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. Local heroes John Rahm, Sergio Garcia and Rafa Cabrera Bello are headlining the field in Spain, where no doubt they will be hoping to delight the fans. Meanwhile, the Las Vegas event on the US PGA Tour has got an impressive field this year, with seven of the top twenty in the world teeing it up at TPC Summerlin.

2019 - Week 39 Winners

Victor Perez (ranked 70th by Golf Predictor) won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship on the European PGA Tour. The 27 year old Frenchman won his first tour title with an impressive display in Scotland. In a week of low scoring, the Challenge Tour graduate held him nerve admirably in a final day battle with Matthew Southgate. The Englishman was also seeking his first win, but he bogeyed two of the last five to allow Perez to grab the lead and win by a single shot. Our top ranked player, Rory McIlroy, finished with six straight birdies, but could still only manage tied 26th. Overall, we only had seven of the top fifteen plus ties (7/22), in an event where many of the bigger names failed to perform.

Cameron Champ (ranked 86th by Golf Predictor) won the Safeway Open on the US PGA Tour. The 24 year old American won his second title in emotional circumstances in California. Despite not much form this season and his grandfather seriously ill in a nearby hospice, Champ somehow still managed to come out on top in Napa. Even though he increased his three shot overnight lead to five shots early on Sunday, Champ prevailed by the bare minimum in the end. Our top ranked player, Justin Thomas, finished in tied 4h, despite being a poor start to the tournament. Overall, we had eight of the top seventeen plus ties (8/22) in the relatively weak fielded event.

Monday, 23 September 2019

2019 - Week 39 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (European PGA Tour) and the Safeway Open (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. There are several big golfing names teeing it up in each event this week. Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Justin Rose lead a solid list of European Tour stalwarts teeing it up on the three courses in Scotland, where it looks like golfers and celebrities alike have the usual difficult weather conditions. Meanwhile, Justin Thomas, Francesco Molinari and Phil Mickelson are among the bigger names playing at the event in California.

Sunday, 22 September 2019

2019 - Week 38 Winners

Danny Willett (ranked 33rd by Golf Predictor) won the BMW PGA Championship on the European PGA Tour. The 31 year old Englishman delighted the home fans by winning his sixth tour title with an impressive final round at Wentworth. Tied with Jon Rahm overnight, Willett got off to a great start on Sunday and was never caught, despite the Spaniard's best efforts. Our top ranked player, Rory McIlroy, once shot himself out of a tournament early, but still finished tied ninth with a strong comeback. Overall, we had eleven of the top seventeen plus ties (11/20) on the testing Wentworth layout. 

Sebastian Munoz (ranked 18th by Golf Predictor) won the Sanderson Farms Championship on the US PGA Tour. The 26 year old Colombian won his first tour title in a play-off in Jackson. Trailing Sungjae Im by a stroke after 71 holes, Munoz birdied the difficult closing hole to force a play-off. After both missed the fairway and then the green, Munoz prevailed with a par putt on the first extra hole after Im pulled his effort badly wide. Our top ranked player, Brandt Snedeker, finished in tied 45th and we had nine of the top eighteen plus ties (9/22) in an event that is traditionally hard to call.

Bullet Charts Added to Golf Predictor

Season pane for F Molinari ahead of the 2019 BMW PGA Championship, showing 2 new bullet charts.

I am pleased to announce the addition of colourful new bullet charts to Golf Predictor. Bullet charts are a type of statistical chart that can be used to  show performance at a glance. I have adapted them for use with ranks (mostly field ranks, but also ranks for season and season segment data) in Golf Predictor, using the already available rank statistics on the various pages. This can be seen in the screenshot above of the Prediction Data page for Francesco Molinari ahead of the 2019 BMW PGA Championship.

There are several elements to a bullet chart:
  1. The chart is broken down into five colour coded ranges, from deep green to deep red, with values nearest the left hand side (green end) being better. Each region represents 20% of the entire chart range (see next point).
  2. The middle yellow range are average ranks and the entire chart range is the field size for the bullet charts on the Prediction Data page (varies from about 60 to over 200, depending on the event). For the bullet charts on other pages, the chart range is the total number of records (Season Segment Data) or number of records for that season (Season Segment Data).
  3. The horizontal gold line and vertical bar represent the actual rank for the player in question. The position of the vertical bar tells you immediately how good the rank is. As can be seen above, Molinari's rank for season average is in the top region (dark green), which is well inside the top 20% of the field. However, his rank for average finish in his last five events is not as impressive, being in the second region (lighter green).

Hovering over a coloured range on a bullet chart will tell you the top value (rank) for that range. Doing this on the right hand deep red range will tell you the entire chart range. Hovering over the horizontal gold line or vertical bar will show you the golfer rank. This is shown above for the last five events average rank for Molinari (36). This will be the same as the value shown in the relevant rank field on the page (can also be seen in the final data row above). Some notes on these new bullet charts:
    1. The bullet chart is hidden if the golfer has not played any relevant event and therefore does not have a rank for that metric.
    2. Some extremely good ranks may be difficult to see on the chart, especially when the entire chart range is large (i.e. Season Segment Data and Season Segment Data pages). This is because the horizontal gold line will be extremely short and you may only see the vertical gold line.
    3. These charts have been implemented using the same modestly sized JavaScript library as used for the box plots, so page performance should not be adversely affected. You may need to reload the library (press Ctrl+F5 on Windows) though, as I have amended the library slightly.

    There has been a total of eighteen new bullet charts added to the pages on the site that show statistical information on a golfer's results in a certain collection of tournaments. Specifically, the bullet plots have been added to the following pages:
    1. Season Data page (1 bullet chart for season results)
    2. Season Segment page (4 bullet charts for overall/early/mid/late season segment results)
    3. Prediction Data page (13 bullet charts for GP season/last five events/course/tournament/last twelve similar events/similar weather/similar length course results/region/field strength/season segment (same chart as shown in item 2)/DraftKings/PlayOn/strokes gained)

    This brings the total number of charts on the site crashing through the six hundred barrier to 604! I trust you will find these new bullet charts useful as a graphical representation of a golfer's performance in certain key areas relative to his peers. Just another way to make Golf Predictor even better!


    Monday, 16 September 2019

    2019 - Week 38 Predictions/Statistics Online

    The predictions and statistics for this week, the BMW PGA Championship (European PGA Tour) and the Sanderson Farms Championship (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. It's the flagship event on the European Tour this week and the new spot in the schedule has tempted Rory McIlroy and several other PGA Tour stars to tee it up on the testing Wentworth layout. While eight of the top twenty in the world will be teeing it up in England, a somewhat weaker line up will be battling it out in Mississippi. While stronger than other years, only four of the world's top one fifty that will be playing in the event, so there is a decent chance of a surprise winner!

    Sunday, 15 September 2019

    2019 - Week 37 Winners

    Sergio Garcia (ranked 2nd by Golf Predictor) won the KLM Open on the European PGA Tour. The 39 year old Spaniard won his sixteenth tour title on his début in the event. Garcia, who had an up and down front nine, went three shots clear after sixteen holes. However, a bogey on the penultimate hole and a closing birdie by Nicolai Hojgaard meant Garcia won by a single stroke from the young Dane in the end. Our top ranked player, Patrick Reed, finished in tied 15th and in an event on a new course where many of the bigger names failed to perform, we had only six of the top fifteen plus ties (6/20).

    Joaquin Niemann (ranked 8th by Golf Predictor) won the A Military Tribute at the Greenbrier on the US PGA Tour. The 20 year old became the first Chilean to win on tour with an assured final round at Old White TPC. Niemann won in style with a great display of putting on Sunday to pull away and win by six shots in the end. Our top ranked player, Bryson DeChambeau, missed the cut and in an event with a lot of Korn Ferry Tour graduates, we had eight of the top nineteen plus ties (8/23) in total.

    Monday, 9 September 2019

    2019 - Week 37 Predictions/Statistics Online

    The predictions/stats for this week, A Military Tribute at the Greenbrier (US PGA Tour) and the KLM Open (European PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor There are not many big names teeing it up in either event this week, with just two members of the top twenty in the world teeing it up in both events combined. Patrick Reed continues his European odyssey in Amsterdam, while Bryson DeChambeau is headlining the field in the US, where the new PGA Tour season is starting up in West Virginia.

    Sunday, 8 September 2019

    2019 - Week 36 Winner

    Paul Casey (ranked 2nd by Golf Predictor) won the Porsche European Open on the European PGA Tour. The 42 year old Englishman won his fourteenth tour title with an impressive display in Germany. Starting the final day a shot behind Robert MacIntyre and Bernd Ritthammer, Casey put on another great display from tee to green to stay right in the mix coming down the stretch. The Englishman then birdied the sixteen and seventeenth holes to give himself the cushion he needed to claim his first tour title in five years by one shot. Our top ranked player, Patrick Reed, finished in tied 36th, and we had six of the top seventeen plus ties (6/19) in the weather affected event. 

    There was no event on the US PGA Tour this week.

    Tuesday, 3 September 2019

    2019 - Week 36 Predictions/Statistics Online

    The predictions and statistics for this week, the Porsche European Open (European PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. Not many big names at the European Open, where Patrick Reed headlines the event. The former Masters champion is joined by several other PGA Tour regulars, including Paul Casey and Xander Schauffele, who are playing on this side of the pond during the brief US PGA close season.

    Sunday, 1 September 2019

    2019 - Week 35 winner

    Sebastian Soderberg (ranked 76th by Golf Predictor) won the Omega European Masters on the European PGA Tour. The 28 year old Swede won his first tour title by in a five man play-off in the scenic Swiss mountains.After he three putted the penultimate hole from seven feet, it looked like Soderberg's chances were gone. However, a par at the last was good enough to get in a play-off with Rory McIlroy, Andres Romero, Lorenzo Gagli and Kalle Samooja. Soderberg was the only man to find the fairway on the first extra hole and was one of three in close with their second shots. The Swede putted first and his birdie put McIlroy and Samooja off sufficiently to miss from closer in. McIlroy was our top ranked player and in an event where many of the bigger names failed to perform, we had only five of the top twelve plus ties (5/19). 

    There was no event on the US PGA Tour this week.