Monday, 16 July 2018

2018 - Week 29 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, The Open Championship (European/US PGA Tour) and the Barbasol Championship (US PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. The excitement is mounting this side of the pond for the most venerable major of them all, which returns to Carnoustie for the first time since 2007. World number one Dustin Johnson leads the strong field and he will be among those trying to master the very hard and dry links challenge this year! Meanwhile, a second string field is once again lining up for the US PGA Tour event in Kentucky.


Sunday, 15 July 2018

2018 - Week 28 Winners

Brandon Stone (ranked 122nd by Golf Predictor) won the Aberdeen Asset Management Scottish Open on the European PGA Tour. The 25 year old South African overcame recent poor form and won his third tour title with a brilliant final day performance. Trailing by three shots overnight, he closed with a course record 60 (-10) to win by four shots. Indeed, Stone missed an eight foot birdie putt on the last for the first ever 59 on the European Tour. Our top ranked player, Justin Rose, finished tied 9th and in an event where many top players failed to perform in the benign conditions, we only had seven of the top nineteen plus ties (7/22*).   

Michael Kim (ranked 94th by Golf Predictor) won the John Deere Classic on the US PGA Tour. The 25 year (and one day!) old American won his first PGA Tour  title with a record breaking performance at TPC Deere Run. Kim also overcame poor recent form to pull away from the field over the first three days. After a good start Sunday, the American was able coast to an eight shot victory on a tournament record low score of twenty seven under par. Our top ranked player, Francesco Molinari finished tied 2nd and in a tournament for the underdog, we had only four of the top sixteen plus ties (4/22).


* Oosthuizen didn't play, promoting Fitzpatrick to the top 22 of the GP rankings.

Monday, 9 July 2018

2018 - Week 28 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the ASI Scottish Open (European PGA Tour) and the John Deere Classic (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. It's the final week before The Open Championship and it's the last chance for a competitive tune up. There is a strong field playing in Scotland this year, with five of the top twenty in the world rankings hoping to get some competitive links practice before heading to Carnoustie. However, there aren't many big names in Illinois, where recent winner Francesco Molinari and defending champion Bryson DeChambeau are headlining the field.

Sunday, 8 July 2018

2018 - Week 27 Winners

Russell Knox (ranked 9th by Golf Predictor) won the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open Hosted by the Rory Foundation on the European PGA Tour. The 33 year old Scot built on recent good form to come from behind and claim his second tour title. Trailing by six shots overnight, Knox finished strongly with a thirty five foot birdie on the last that was good enough for a play-off after Ryan Fox missed a short birdie putt on the same hole. Then, unbelievably in the play-off, history repeated itself as Knox holed for another birdie from almost the same spot and Fox missed again from a similar distance to before! Our top ranked player, defending champion Jon Rahm, finished in tied 4th after a bad start and a great finish on Sunday. Overall, we had ten of the top nineteen plus ties (10/23) in the latest Rolex Series event. 

Kevin Na (ranked 13th by Golf Predictor) won the A Military Tribute at the Greenbrier on the US PGA Tour. The 34 year old American finally won his second tour title after almost seven years of waiting with a great final round at Old White TPC. Na won in style with a great display of putting on Sunday to pull away and win by five shots in the end. Our top ranked player, Bubba Watson, finished poorly on Sunday for tied 13th and in an event where a lot of the bigger names failed to shine, we had eight of the top twenty one plus ties (8/25) in total.



Wednesday, 4 July 2018

New Field Comparison Charts Added to Golf Predictor

New field comparison chart of season vs course history for 2018 A Military Tribute at the Greenbrier

Similar to the field strokes gained chart added to the site some time ago, I am pleased to announce 56 new field comparison charts to Golf Predictor. These new charts allow you to see at a glance which golfers have the best values in two historical metrics of your chosing. Each of the first seven pages in the Form menu (Same Course, Same Tournament, Season, Last 5 Events, Similar Tournaments, Same Region and Similar Field Strength) have a new "Compare Field" chart link which displays a chart similar to the screenshot above. The Season form page contains a link to the chart shown above, where season average is on the horizontal (X) axis and you can chose from eight metrics to compare from the drop down list box above the chart. Your selected metric appears on the vertical (Y) axis, as shown above.

The complete list of new charts is as follows:
  1. Season average vs course average for the field.
  2. Season average vs tournament average for the field.
  3. Season average vs last five average for the field.
  4. Season average vs similar length course average for the field.
  5. Season average vs last twelve similar events average for the field.
  6. Season average vs same region average for the field.
  7. Season average vs similar weather average for the field.
  8. Season average vs similar field strength average for the field.
  9. Course average vs season average for the field.
  10. Course average vs tournament average for the field.
  11. Course average vs last five average for the field.
  12. Course average vs similar length course average for the field.
  13. Course average vs last twelve similar events average for the field.
  14. Course average vs same region average for the field.
  15. Course average vs similar weather average for the field. 
  16. Course average vs similar field strength average for the field. 
  17. Tournament average vs season average for the field.
  18. Tournament average vs course average for the field,
  19. Tournament average vs last five average for the field.
  20. Tournament average vs similar length course average for the field.
  21. Tournament average vs last twelve similar events average for the field.
  22. Tournament average vs same region average for the field.
  23. Tournament average vs similar weather average for the field.
  24. Tournament average vs similar field strength average for the field.
  25. Last five average vs season average for the field.
  26. Last five average vs course average for the field.
  27. Last five average vs tournament average for the field.
  28. Last five average vs similar length course average for the field.
  29. Last five average vs last twelve similar events average for the field.
  30. Last five average vs same region average for the field.
  31. Last five average vs similar weather average for the field.
  32. Last five average vs similar field strength average for the field.
  33. Last twelve similar events average vs season average for the field.
  34. Last twelve similar events average vs course average for the field.
  35. Last twelve similar events average vs tournament average for the field.
  36. Last twelve similar events average vs similar length course average for the field.
  37. Last twelve similar events average vs last five events average for the field.
  38. Last twelve similar events average vs same region average for the field.
  39. Last twelve similar events average vs similar weather average for the field.
  40. Last twelve similar events average vs similar field strength average for the field.
  41. Same region average vs season average for the field.
  42. Same region average vs course average for the field.
  43. Same region average vs tournament average for the field.
  44. Same region average vs similar length course average for the field.
  45. Same region average vs last five events average for the field.
  46. Same region average vs last twelve similar events average for the field.
  47. Same region average vs similar weather average for the field.
  48. Same region average vs similar field strength average for the field.
  49. Similar field strength average vs season average for the field.
  50. Similar field strength average vs course average for the field.
  51. Similar field strength average vs tournament average for the field.
  52. Similar field strength average vs similar length course average for the field.
  53. Similar field strength average vs last five events average for the field.
  54. Similar field strength average vs last twelve similar events average for the field.
  55. Similar field strength average vs similar weather average for the field.
  56. Similar field strength average vs same region average for the field.

This brings the total number of charts on Golf Predictor up to 566 and these are the first charts on the site where you can change the chart data based on a drop down list box. Some notes on these new charts:
  1.  Hovering over a point on the chart will show the golfer's name, his values in both metrics and some extra statistics, as shown above for Jason Gore.
  2. The horizontal yellow line in the middle of the chart is the field average for the vertical (Y) axis. The vertical blue line is the field average for the horizontal (X) axis. These lines make it easy to identify the golfers with the best and worst values in each metric at a glance. Below the yellow line is better than average for the vertical axis and left of the blue line is better than average for the horizontal axis.
  3. These average values for both metrics are shown above the chart, as can be seen in the screenshots above. You can also hover over the lines to examine the values in the hover text. On each line, one co-ordinate (the average) will remain constant as you move along the line in question.
  4. Like the strokes gained chart referenced above, these new charts are also zoomable.
  5. Unlike the strokes gained chart referenced above,  the best combination of the compared statistics is the bottom left quadrant (it has the lowest averages for both metrics).
  6. Conversely, the worst combination of the compared statistics is the top right quadrant (it has the highest averages for both metrics).
  7. The points along the bottom of the chart above are those golfers with no course history in the previous five seasons.
  8. The points along the extreme left of the chart above are those golfers with no season history.
  9. Golfers with no value for either metric are excluded from the chart and are listed underneath instead. 
  10. Sometimes, all points for some of these new chart will form a straight line. If it is a diagonal line, it means both metrics are equal, e.g. course and tournament average for a tournament that has been held on the same course for the previous five years. If the line is vertical or horizontal, it means one of the metrics is the same (unlikely to be anything other than zero!) for the entire field. There is a note above each relevant chart outlining this.
  11. Similar to above, some charts may approach a straight line, but will not be exactly so. For example, this can happen if the last five events and season history are similar for the entire field. There is a note above each relevant chart outlining this.

I trust you will find these 56 new charts useful for quickly spotting good picks for upcoming tournaments. Just another way to make Golf Predictor even better!

Monday, 2 July 2018

2018 - Week 27 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open Hosted by the Rory Foundation (European PGA Tour) and A Military Tribute at the Greenbrier (US PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. There are not many big names teeing it up in either event this week, with just two members of the top twenty in the world teeing it up in either event. Bubba Watson and Phil Mickelson are headlining the field in West Virginia, while here in Ireland, we have host Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm, who is defending the title he won last year at Portstewart. No doubt the latter duo will be hoping to get their links game in shape for the big one in two weeks time!

Sunday, 1 July 2018

2018 - Week 26 Winners

Alex Noren (ranked 5th by Golf Predictor) won the HNA Open de France on the European PGA Tour. The 35 year old Swede won his tenth tour title with an impressive weekend performance in Paris. Noren closed with 65-67 on the tough 2018 Ryder Cup venue and came through the field and win from seven shots back. Of course, it helped his cause that all the contenders fell away at the end, most expensively Julian Suri, who doubled the last to lose by one. Our top ranked player, Justin Thomas, finished in tied eighth on his Ryder Cup reconnaissance  and we had fourteen of the top twenty one plus ties (14/26) on the testing layout.

Francesco Molinari (ranked 2nd by Golf Predictor) won the Quicken Loans National on the US PGA Tour. The 35 year old became the first Italian born player to win on tour in over 70 years with an incredible display of ball striking. Tied for the lead overnight, Molinari turned on the afterburners just after the turn and blew away the field with an golfing exhibition to win by eight shots in the end. Our top ranked player, Rickie Fowler, finished in 12th and we had eight of the top seventeen plus ties (8/22) in total.  

Monday, 25 June 2018

2018 - Week 26 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the HNA Open de France (European PGA Tour) and the Quicken Loans National (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. There aren't many big names at Tiger Woods' tournament this week,but at least Rickie Fowler has turned up again and the man himself is playing this year. The French event has a strong field this year, with a number of Ryder Cup hopefuls, including American Justin Thomas, teeing it up in anticipation of returning to the course for the biannual event in September!

Sunday, 24 June 2018

2018 - Week 25 Winners

Matt Wallace (ranked 14th by Golf Predictor) won the BMW International Open on the European PGA Tour. The 28 year old Englishman won his second title of the season with a fast finish in Germany. Wallace closed with a 65 (-7) to overtake the six overnight joint leaders and win by a single shot. One of the trio in tied second was Thorbjorn Olesen, who finished with a brilliant 61 (-11) to almost win the tournament from nowhere. Our top ranked player, Tommy Fleetwood, was lucky to make the cut after flying over from the US Open and having his father on the bag! He finished in tied 59th and we had eleven of the top eighteen plus ties (11/25) in an event plagued by high winds for the first two days

Bubba Watson (ranked 3rd by Golf Predictor) won the Travelers Championship on the US PGA Tour. The 39 year old American won his third title of the season and his third title at TPC River Highlands with a strong finish. Despite being tied 77th after round one and six shots behind Paul Casey after round three, Watson finished strongly with a 63 (-7) to overtake the stuttering Casey, who threw away an overnight four shot lead. A poor finish by the Englishman and the other contenders meant they fell away and Watson won by three shots in the end. Our top ranked player, last week's winner at the US Open, Brooks Koepka, finished in tied 19th and we had eleven of the top nineteen plus ties (11/25) in total.

Monday, 18 June 2018

2018 - Week 25 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the BMW International Open (European PGA Tour) and the Travelers Championship (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. After the excitement of the US Open, it's back to the grind! Unusually for a week after a major, there are a good number of the top players teeing it up this week. Nine of the top twenty in the world are teeing it up in Connecticut, including double US Open champion Brooks Koepka. The man be beat into second place, Tommy Fleetwood, is one of the couple more top twenty players that are making the trip from New York to Germany to compete.

2018 - Week 24 Winner

Brooks Koepka (ranked 6th by Golf Predictor) won the US Open on the European/US PGA Tour. The 28 year old American survived the sometimes brutal course set up at Shinnecock Hills best and became the first golfer to defend his US Open champion in almost thirty years. Tied for the lead with three others overnight, Koepka got his nose in front and stayed there with an impressive display of clutch putting on the back nine. Although his co-leaders fell away before rebounding somewhat, Koepka had an early target to beat, set by the fast finishing Tommy Fleetwood. The Englishman eventually finished two back in second after a record equalling 63 (-7) last round. Our top ranked player, Dustin Johnson, lead for most of the week and was four clear at halfway, but fell back with poor putting over the weekend to finally finish third. Overall, despite the carnage on Thursday and Saturday, we had eight of the top sixteen plus ties (8/19). 


Monday, 11 June 2018

2018 - Week 24 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the US Open (European/US PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. The excitement is mounting for the second major of the season in the plush surroundings of The Hamptons in New York. The tournament is returning to Shinnecock Hills for the first time since 2004 and the par 70 layout has been changed significantly in the interim. Among other things, the course has been lengthened and all the trees have been removed. Defending champion, Brooks Koepka, will be delighted to be back to full fitness after his injury problems and will no doubt put up a stern defence of his title!

Sunday, 10 June 2018

2018 - Week 23 Winners

Mikko Korhonen (ranked 1st by Golf Predictor) won the innovative Shot Clock Masters on the European PGA Tour. The 37 year old Finn finally won his maiden tour title with an impressive display of frontrunning in Austria. After building up a five shot lead with a blemish free opening 54 holes, Korhonen won his first title in 146 attempts by six strokes. That banished the demons of twelve visits to Q-School for the Finn, who obviously wasn't phased by the time restrictions! Including the winner, we had ten of the top nineteen plus ties (10/22*) in total. 

Dustin Johnson (ranked 1st by Golf Predictor) won the FedEx St. Jude Classic on the US PGA Tour. The 33 year old American won his second event of the season, despite not having his A game in Memphis. The two horse race after round three of DJ and Andrew Putnam turned into a one horse race after a poor start by Putnam. Despite not playing his best golf, DJ was able to bring it home, finishing in style with a hole out eagle for a six shot victory and a return to number one in the world. Including the winner, we had eight of the top eighteen plus ties (8/25), in an event where many of the bigger names competing didn't show great form ahead of the US Open next week.

*Due to withdrawals, Austin Connolly was promoted to the top 22 of the GP rankings.

2018 GP Scores Updated on Golf Predictor

Due to a small error in the prediction engine, I have had to recalculate the GP Score (and hence the GP Rank which is based on it) on Golf Predictor. This small error seems to have been introduced after week one of the 2018 season, i.e. the week of the Sony Open/South African Open. The error did not affect any of the golfer stats (e.g. average/best/worst finish etc.) produced for these tournaments, but it may have slightly affected the GP Ranks of the golfers participating in them.

This error has now been fixed and all the affected tournaments have been updated. To see the corrected GP Ranks/GP Scores for this year's tournaments, you may have to refresh any pages that might be in your browser cache (press F5 on Windows). I apologise for any inconvenience caused.

Monday, 4 June 2018

2018 - Week 23 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Shot Clock Masters (European PGA Tour) and the FedEx St. Jude Classic (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. Although it's the last chance for a tune up before the US Open, there aren't many of the top golfers playing this week. At least there are four members of the top twenty up in Memphis, while there are no members of the world's top hundred playing in the novel timed event in Austria.

2018 - Week 22 Winners

Thorbjorn Olesen (ranked 45th by Golf Predictor) won the Italian Open on the European PGA Tour. The 28 year old Dane overcame some indifferent recent form to secure his fifth tour title in Italy. On a week of hot scoring, Olesen held off home favourite and winner from last week Francesco Molinari to win by a single shot. He was made to sweat for it, after a brilliant closing birdie by Molinari and getting out of position off the final tee. However, the Dane kept his composure and got up and down from a greenside bunker to take the title. Our top ranked player, Tommy Fleetwood, finished in tied 23rd and we had eight of the top nineteen plus ties (8/20)

Bryson Dechambeau (ranked 26th by Golf Predictor) won the Memorial Tournament pres. by Nationwide on the US PGA Tour. The 24 year old American won his second tour title in a play-off with Byeong-hun An and Kyle Stanley. Despite hitting just five fairways and bogeying the final hole to fall into the three man play-off, Dechambeau prevailed at the second extra hole with a birdie to see off An and secure the title at Jack's place. Our top ranked player, Justin Rose, finished tied 6th and we had eleven of the top thirteen plus ties (11/22) in this event.

Wednesday, 30 May 2018

New DraftKings Version of Custom Ranking Page Added to Golf Predictor

New Custom Rankings page with DK salary column (Overall Score now in player pop-up).

Further to this post from a few years ago, I am pleased to announce that I have added a variant of the Rankings (Custom) page with DraftKings salary to Golf Predictor. This page was added as a result of a user request and is available via a link on the existing Rankings (Custom) page on the Prediction menu. This new page is shown above for the 2018 Memorial Tournament, where you can see the new Salary column on the right hand side and the link to switch between the two page variants above the sliders. Some notes on this new page:
  1. Due to space restrictions, the computed Overall GP Score (based on your chosen weightings) shown in the right hand column in the original page is now in the pop up for each golfer. This can be seen in the screenshot above.
  2. The pop-up for each golfer also shows their DraftKings average points per game, also shown in the screenshot above.
  3. For tournaments with no DraftKings data, "n/a" is displayed in the Salary column.
  4. You may have to refresh the Rankings (Custom) page (F5 on Windows) if you have viewed it recently to see the new link to the new page variant. 

I trust you will find this new custom rankings page useful for your DraftKings DFS analysis. Just another way to make Golf Predictor even better!

Monday, 28 May 2018

2018 - Week 22 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Italian Open (European PGA Tour) and the Memorial Tournament pres. by Nationwide (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. As usual, there's a strong field for Jack's tournament, with thirteen of the world's top twenty teeing it up in Ohio. That doesn't leave many big names for the latest Rolex Series event in Italy, where three of the remainder of the world's top twenty are teeing it up in Brescia.

Sunday, 27 May 2018

2018 - Week 21 Winners

Francesco Molinari (ranked 7th by Golf Predictor) won the BMW PGA Championship on the European PGA Tour. The 35 year old Italian won his fifth tour title with an impressive performance at Wentworth. After several close calls in the flagship tournament in recent years, Molinari finally sealed the deal with a blemish free weekend to win by two strokes. Our top ranked player, Rory McIlroy, played imperiously on the first two days, but stalled big time on the weekend. However, the Northern Irishman still finished second with his C game on the weekend. Overall, we had thirteen of the top twenty plus ties (13/26) on the testing Wentworth layout. 

Justin Rose (ranked 3rd by Golf Predictor) won the Fort Worth Invitational on the US PGA Tour. The 37 year old  Englishman won his second tour title of the season with an imperious display of ball striking in Texas. On a day of both hot temperatures and scoring, Rose and playing partner Brooks Koepka were among those who shot the lights out on Sunday. That meant Koepka couldn't really make much inroads into Rose's four shot overnight lead, losing by three strokes in the end. Our top ranked player, Jordan Spieth, never really fired and finished in tied 32nd. Overall, we had only six of the top fourteen plus ties (6/19).

Saturday, 26 May 2018

Strokes Gained for European Tour Added to Golf Predictor

Further to this post from a few years ago, I am pleased to announce that strokes gained for the European Tour has been added to Golf Predictor. This data has only recently become available and because of its importance, it has been added to the site. It will be available for European Tour events from week 21, 2018 (the week of the BMW PGA Championship). Some notes on this new strokes gained functionality:
  1. This new strokes gained data is available on the existing Rankings (Strokes Gained) page on the Predictions menu. To facilitate this, you can now select your tour of interest in the Tour drop down box.
  2. For consistency, the stats imported are the same as those imported for the US PGA Tour, i.e. strokes gained total, strokes gained rank (based on total), strokes gained tee to green and strokes gained putting. This also allows me to use the existing infrastructure for the strokes gained stats, already used for the US PGA Tour stats.
  3. For the first few weeks, the source strokes gained values seemed to change every day. That appears to have stopped now, but the values will be imported on the Monday of tournament week, whatever they are!
  4. For tournaments on both tours (i.e. majors and WGCs), the strokes gained for the US PGA Tour will be used, as this will cover more of the top players. 
  5. The strokes gained for each tour are kept separate on the strokes gained charts on the Other tab of golfer Prediction Data pages. It doesn't make much sense to combine them, given the definition of strokes gained is dependent on averages for the particular tour. Given the previous point, data for majors and WGCs only appear on charts for golfers in US PGA Tour events.
  6. In some instances, the names (or more accurately, the name variant) used in the source strokes gained lists do not appear to be the same as those used in the other lists (e.g. entry and results). I will endeavour to fix these anomalies as they are found, but some may fall between the cracks. This may prevent those particular golfers from having their data imported for that week.
  7. I have checked/updated the Field Ranking, Rankings (Filter) and the DFS Lineup Builder pages to make sure that the strokes gained options now work for European Tour events, where the data is available.
  8. You may have to refresh any page with strokes gained information (F5 on Windows) you have viewed recently to see the new European strokes gained statistics. 
  9. I wanted to have this functionality live ahead of the start of the flagship BMW PGA Championship. However, due to the fact that I finally got to fulfil a long-time dream of visiting the amazing Skellig Michael (aka Star Wars island!) this week, I was unable to go live during the week!

I trust you will find this new strokes gained functionality useful for your European Tour analysis. Just another way to make Golf Predictor even better!

Monday, 21 May 2018

2018 - Week 21 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the BMW PGA Championship (European PGA Tour) and the Fort Worth Invitational (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. It's the flagship event on the European Tour this week and many of the tour big guns are out in force, including Rory McIlroy who returns to Wentworth. However, like last year, a couple of big name European stars, Justin Rose and Jon Rahm, are among the biggest names in the field in Texas. They mustn't be too worried about making the Ryder Cup team!

2018 - Week 20 Winners

Adrian Otaegui (ranked 4th by Golf Predictor) won inaugural Belgian Knockout on the European PGA Tour. The 25 year old Spaniard won his second tour title with an impressive performance in the new hybrid event in Belgium. Having qualified comfortably in tied eighth place after the opening two rounds of stroke play, Otaegui played each of his six nine hole medal matchplay rounds on the short, but narrow layout under par and was a worthy winner, defeating Benjamin Hebert by two strokes in the final. Our top ranked player, Joost Luiten, went out after first match play round, finishing in tied 33rd. Overall, we had twelve of the top seventeen plus ties (12/32) in the weak fielded, new format event.

Aaron Wise (ranked 22nd by Golf Predictor) won the AT&T Byron Nelson on the US PGA Tour. The 21 year old American won his maiden tour title with a composed final day performance on the faux links layout in Dallas. Tied for the lead overnight with Mark Leishman, Wise pulled away on Sunday with some impressive play to win by three shots with a tournament record score of -23. Our top ranked player, Trinity Forest member Jordan Spieth, finished in tied 21st and we had fifteen of the top twenty one plus ties (15/25*) in total.


*Murray withdrew, promoting Knox into the top twenty five of the prediction rankings.

Monday, 14 May 2018

2018 - Week 20 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week,  the Belgian Knockout (European PGA Tour) and the AT&T Byron Nelson (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. There are several big names teeing it up in Texas this week, where Hideki Matsuyama and Sergio Garcia join local hero Jordan Spieth at the Byron Nelson. As to be expected, the field for the inaugural Belgian Knockout is not as stellar, with just three of the top one hundred in the world teeing it up in the new strokeplay/matchplay hybrid format. 

2018 - Week 19 Winners

Joakim Lagergren (ranked 20th by Golf Predictor) won the Rocco Forte Sicilian Open on the European PGA Tour. The 26 year old Swede won his maiden tour title in a play-off with Michael Lorenzo-Vera in Sicily. After getting off to a fast start on Sunday, the birdies dried up for Lagergren on the back nine. That allowed the overnight leader Lorenzo-Vera to catch him and force extra holes. However, Lagergren was not to be denied and won at the first play-off hole with a brilliant birdie. Our top ranked player, Andy Sullivan, finished in tied 3rd and we had seven of the top fourteen plus ties (7/19*) in the weak fielded event in mostly windy conditions.

Webb Simpson (ranked 22nd by Golf Predictor) won The Players Championship on the US PGA Tour. The 32 year old American won his first tour title in five years with an impressive performance at Sawgrass. After taking a five shot lead with a second round 63 (-9) and increasing his lead to seven shots after round three, Simpson eased to a four shot win and could even easily afford a closing double bogey! Despite a promising start, our top ranked player, Dustin Johnson, finished tamely for tied 17th. Overall, we only had eight of the top seventeen plus ties (8/22) in an event where several of the bigger names struggled on the tough layout.


*Kjeldsen withdrew, promoting Lagergren into the top nineteen of the rankings.

Monday, 7 May 2018

2018 - Week 19 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, The Players Championship (US PGA Tour) and the Rocco Forte Sicilian Open (European PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. As usual, there's a very strong field for the so called "fifth major" in Florida, with all the top fifty in the world rankings teeing it up at Sawgrass. That doesn't leave much top talent for the European Tour, which has only one golfer is (barely!) inside the top one hundred in the world rankings playing in Sicily

Sunday, 6 May 2018

2018 - Week 18 Winner

Jason Day (ranked 6th by Golf Predictor) won the Wells Fargo Championship on the US PGA Tour. The 30 year old Australian captured his second title of the season with an impressive display of putting at Quail Hollow. Despite not having his best long game, Day saved himself on the greens, including on the last three holes, where he had two birdies and a clutch par putt. That meant a two shot victory over Nick Watney and Aaron Wise in the end. Our top ranked player, Justin Thomas, failed in his bid to become world number one and finished in tied 21st. Overall, we had twelve of the top twenty one plus ties (12/26) in total on the testing layout.
There was no individual stroke play event on the European PGA Tour this week.   

Monday, 30 April 2018

2018 - Week 18 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions for this week, the Wells Fargo Championship (US PGA Tour)  are now available on Golf Predictor. The event moves back to Quail Hollow this year after a break last year due to the hosting of the US PGA Championship. A strong field has signed up, with twelve of the top twenty in the world teeing it up in North Carolina, led by world number two, Justin Thomas. 

There is no individual stroke play event on the European PGA Tour this week.    

Sunday, 29 April 2018

2018 - Week 17 Winner

Alexander Bjork (ranked 6th by Golf Predictor) won the Volvo China Open on the European PGA Tour. The 27 year old Swede won his first tour title with an impressive final day performance in Beijing. Bjork closed with a blemish free 65 (-7) to post a -18 target in the clubhouse. Adrian Otaegui had a chance to catch him, but a poor bogey on the penultimate hole meant both he and Matt Wallace needed an unlikely eagle on the par five closing hole to force a play-off. That proved to be too great a task for the duo and the Swede was duly crowned champion. Our top ranked player, defending champion Alexander Levy, finished in tied 14th, and we had six of the top fourteen plus ties (6/19).
 
The Zurich Classic of New Orleans on the US PGA Tour was not covered this year due to its transition to a team event. Unfortunately, this makes it unsuitable for Golf Predictor.

Monday, 23 April 2018

2018 - Week 17 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Volvo China Open (European PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. No big names are teeing it up in China this week and the tournament has only two years of course history. Neither of these facts make it very easy to call, but last week's winner Alexander Levy will be hoping to defend his title in Beijing. The Zurich Classic of New Orleans (US PGA Tour) will not covered as it now a team event. Unfortunately, this makes it incompatible with Golf Predictor.

Sunday, 22 April 2018

2018 - Week 16 Winners

Alexander Levy (ranked 2nd by Golf Predictor) won the Trophee Hassan II on the European PGA Tour. The 27 year old Frenchman won his fifth tour title with a solid final day performance in Morocco. Levy started well on Sunday, overtaking overnight leader Alvaro Quiros. A string of pars followed on the back nine until a plugged lie in a bunker on the sixteenth cut his lead to a single shot. However, Levy bounced back with a great birdie on the penultimate hole to give himself a two shot lead up the last. That just about proved sufficient, as Quiros finished with two birdies to reduce the winning margin to a single shot. Despite his recent form, our top ranked player, Paul Dunne, missed the cut. Overall, we had nine of the top nineteen plus ties (9/21) on the testing layout with new, tricky greens.

Andrew Landry (ranked 65th by Golf Predictor) won the Valero Texas Open on the US PGA Tour. The 30 year old American won his first tour title with an assured final day performance in San Antonio. Co-leading with Zach Johnson overnight, Landry pulled away on Sunday with only Trey Mullinax staying with him. However, Mullinax let him off the hook on the two final holes, allowing Landry to win by two strokes in the end. Our top ranked player, Sergio Garcia, disappointingly missed his second cut in a row. Overall, we had only five of the top twenty plus ties (5/25) in an event partially played in difficult conditions on a tough course.

Monday, 16 April 2018

2018 - Week 16 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Trophee Hassan II (European PGA Tour) (European PGA Tour) and the Valero Texas Open (US PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. Not a great field in either event this week, but at least there are five of the top thirty in the world teeing it up in Texas. Meanwhile, in Morocco, Ireland's Paul Dunne will be hoping to go one better than last week and secure his second tour title.

Sunday, 15 April 2018

2018 - Week 15 Winners

Jon Rahm (ranked 1st by Golf Predictor) won the Real Club Valderrama Open de Espana on the European PGA Tour. The 23 year old Spaniard delighted the large home following by winning his national open at the first time of asking. Rahm saw off his compatriot Nacho Elvira and Irishman Paul Dunne down the stretch to win his third tour title by two strokes. Rahm was our top ranked player (by some margin!) and we had eight of the top twelve plus ties (8/20).

Satoshi Kodaira (ranked 45th by Golf Predictor) won the RBC Heritage on the US PGA Tour. The 28 year old Japanese player won his first tour title in a play-off with Si-woo Kim. The South Korean led for most of the final day, but a succession of missed short putts meant he needed to par the last in worsening conditions to force a play-off. As it happened, Kim missed another short putt for birdie and the duo went to extra holes. They traded pars on the first two holes, before Kodaira took the title with a birdie on the next green. Our top ranked player, Dustin Johnson, finished in tied 16th and we only had seven of the top sixteen plus ties (7/22) in total.

Personal Information Changes on Golf Predictor

Registration page now with "Year of Birth" field (highlighted)

I have made changes to the personal information stored about members on Golf Predictor. The date of birth fields (day/month/year) on the Golf Predictor Registration page have been replaced with a single, much less specific year of birth. This can be seen in the screenshot of the updated Registration page above. The Profile page for each member has also been updated just to show this year of birth. These changes were implemented mainly due to the impending General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), set to be introduced next month (May 25th, 2018) by the European Union.

As I don't need to know the exact date of birth of a user, I thought it best to stop storing it altogether. This will obviously prevent any chance of this sensitive information getting into the wrong hands in the worst care scenario of a data breach. I would still like to know the approximate age of Golf Predictor users, hence the retention of the year of birth.

Some notes on this change:
  1. All new users will be given a default day and month of birth of the first of January in the background as the system still expects a date, not just a year. 
  2. I have updated the date of birth of all existing members to be the first of January of whatever year they said they were born. Existing members will also now only see their year of birth on their Profile page.
  3. I have taken further steps to secure the personal information on database backups. I have deleted all server based backups and all other ones have always been encrypted for maximum security on a password protected hard drive.

I trust you will find this change to your satisfaction. I want to assure all Golf Predictor users that I take user privacy very seriously and I will continue to do my utmost to keep the limited personal information supplied as secure as I can.

Monday, 9 April 2018

2018 - Week 15 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Open de Espana (European PGA Tour) and the RBC Heritage (US PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. After the excitement of The Masters, it's back to the grind this week! While most of the big names are resting after the exertions of Augusta, there are several big names playing in South Carolina. Not least among them is world number one Dustin Johnson and fellow strong performers in Augusta Marc Leishman and Paul Casey. Meanwhile in Europe, the rank and file will be chomping at the bit in Spain after a three week hiatus from normal tournament play. This year's tournament is back after a one year break and is being held back in Madrid this year. Local heroes John Rahm and Rafa Cabrera Bello are headlining the field after their exertions in the first major of the year.

2018 - Week 14 Winner

Patrick Reed (ranked 19th by Golf Predictor) won the first major of the year, The Masters (European/US PGA Tour). The 27 year old American won his first major after a topsy turvy final round at Augusta. Starting out with a three shot lead over Rory McIlroy, Reed began nervously, but managed to hit back with birdie after every setback. He was helped by a very poor day on the greens by McIlroy who faded mid round. Jordan Spieth raced through the field, but bogeyed the last to spoil a fantastic final round somewhat and finish two back in third place. Reed had a great two putt par on the final two holes to win by a single shot from a fast finishing Rickie Fowler and make his team and me (who tipped/backed him at 40/1) very happy! Our top ranked player, Dustin Johnson, never really contended, but still finished in tied 10th. Overall, we had fourteen of the top nineteen in a tournament where most of the top names performed well!

Tuesday, 3 April 2018

"Tournament Winners - Form by Tournament" Page Added To Golf Predictor


The course/tournament form of all winners of the Masters since 2003 (see note 1)
I am delighted to announce the addition of a new "Tournament Winners - Form by Tournament" page to Golf Predictor. This page is available on the "Other Stats" menu and  is similar to the existing "Tournament Winners - Form" page. However, instead of listing the form for all the winners in a particular GP Season, it lists the form of all winners of the selected tournament since 2003 (see note one below).

Like the "Tournament Winners - Form" page, you can now see the form for all winners of a tournament in their previous ten events in three selectable categories (All Tournaments, Tournament/Course and Similar Events) on the same page. This is shown in the screenshot above for the 2018 Masters, where the form of all recent winners in their ten appearances at Augusta prior to their win is displayed. As you can see, this new page makes it very easy to spot trends. For example, on selecting the Similar Events option, this new page clearly shows that ALL winners since 2004 had at least one top twenty in their previous five majors prior to the win. This ability to spot trends so easily makes this page invaluable for anyone interested in forecasting the outcome of tournaments.

Some notes on this new page:
  1. GP records go back to 2003. Therefore, form for winners of older tournaments around that time will be incomplete, as there are no relevant results in the database before then. That shouldn't be too much of a handicap as there is at least ten years of newer, more relevant tournaments with complete form history to analyse.
  2. All tournaments in the system will be listed for the selected GP Season. This means that in the current season with events that haven't taken place yet, the first winner displayed will be from the previous running of the event (usually the previous season). For events in the current season that have finished, you will see the latest winner first in the list.
  3. Further to the above point, the first tournament displayed in the tournaments dropdown will be the last event for the selected season/tour. This means when you load the page initially, you will see this tournament and you must pick the current week's event from the dropdown, should you wish to see it. However, changing season should automatically bring you to the same tournament as currently selected in the new season selected (if it exists and GP is set up properly for that tournament!).
  4. I fixed a bug with the existing "Tournament Winners - Form" page for Tournament/Course form for tournaments co-sanctioned by both the US and European tours.
  5. The main data table has a year (GP Season) and a week column to allow you to distinguish easily between the different runnings of the tournament. Note that some tournaments have been held more than once in certain GP Seasons.
  6. If you hover over the first or third columns in the table above, you will see more information. This is shown in the screenshot above for the year column for the 2013 Masters. This shows the tournament name, course name and dates for the event. Hovering over the winner's first name shows the tournament won, his world ranking and prediction ranking ahead of the event (for tournaments since Golf Predictor started in 2008) and a summary of the form being displayed.
  7. You may have to reload any pages you have viewed recently to see the new menu option for this page.

This new page should be very useful for judging what type of form will be most suitable for a particular tournament. This is especially true for big tournaments like the Masters, which starts this Thursday. Like the original "Tournament Winners - Form" page,  only subscribers can access the premium form stats on this new page. So, sign up today and reap the full benefits of Golf Predictor, the premium professional golf statistics site.

The Masters - DraftKings DFS Analysis

The Course/Tournament

It's the big one! The Masters is probably the most anticipated tournament of the year among golf fans, being the first major of the year and coming eight long months after the US PGA Championship. This major is uniquely played at the same venue every year, the hallowed turf of the par 72 Augusta National, 7435 perfectly manicured yards of Georgia countryside. Expect the usual firm, fast undulating greens, closely mown grass and fairways cut from the green back to the tees. As to be expected, winners since its inception in 1934 include practically every modern legend of the game, including Gene Sarazen, Byron Nelson, Sam Snead, Ben Hogan, Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus, Gary Player, Tom Watson, Seve Ballesteros, Nick Faldo, Phil Mickelson and of course, Tiger Woods.

As usual, the Masters field is the smallest field of all the majors, and indeed is small this year even by its own standards. There are just 87 golfers teeing it up this week, the lowest in over twenty years. Of those, you can probably immediately discount sixteen or seventeen of the older former champions, invited amateurs and Danny Willett (sorry, Danny!!). Of the remainder, you have all the top players in the world, so there are many golfers with great stats in the field.
The weather isn't expected to be much of a factor, although along with the lowish winds, there may be cool temperatures and some rain, particularly on Saturday. In addition, similar to last week in Houston, there is a possibility of rain on Wednesday, which would soften the course up and lead to easier putting and consequently lower scores for the first day or two also.

Recent Winners

The Masters usually produces a big name winner and of course Sergio finally fulfilled a lifetime of promise by securing his first major title here last year. However, there is always the possibility of a lesser light surging through the field on the back nine Sunday, like Danny Willett or Charl Schwartzel.

2017     Sergio Garcia
2016     Danny Willett
2015     Jordan Spieth  
2014     Bubba Watson
2013     Adam Scott
2012     Bubba Watson  
2011     Charl Schwartzel
2010     Phil Mickelson
2009     Angel Cabrera

Horses for Courses

As the only one played on the same track every year, course form at the Masters is obviously more important than at the other majors. Experience at Augusta is said to be crucial, with Fuzzy Zoeller (1979) famously being the only winner of the event on his first try since the second staging in 1935. Knowing where to put your ball and more importantly, where not to put it are key. The following golfers have good records at Augusta in recent years:

Dustin Johnson
Rory McIlroy
Rickie Fowler
Justin Rose
Hideki Matsuyama
Phil Mickelson (mostly before 2013)
Jordan Spieth
Matt Kuchar
Sergio Garcia
Tiger Woods (before 2016)
Paul Casey
Adam Scott
Ian Poulter

Region Specialists

Some golfers play well in certain regions, perhaps because of the climate, affinity with the local area, grasses used on the golf courses or time of year the tournaments are played there. The following golfers have good records playing in that part of the South-Eastern US in recent years:

Dustin Johnson
Justin Thomas
Rory McIlroy
Jon Rahm
Rickie Fowler
Justin Rose
Hideki Matsuyama
Jordan Spieth
Matt Kuchar
Sergio Garcia
Jason Day
Henrik Stenson
Xander Schauffele
Tiger Woods (before 2016)
Paul Casey
Russell Henley
Ryan Moore
Kevin Kisner
Charl Schwartzel
Brian Harman

Form Golfers

When a golfer is playing well, you have to make hay in your DraftKings contests! Not so easy to isolate for the Masters, where the field is full of quality players peaking for the event. Even though it's a major with an aura, in-form golfers should bring more confidence with them up Magnolia Lane! The following golfers have been playing well lately:

Dustin Johnson (except for the Match Play!)
Justin Thomas
Bubba Watson
Jordan Spieth
Sergio Garcia
Jason Day
Phil Mickelson
Justin Rose
Paul Casey
Tommy Fleetwood
Henrik Stenson
Matt Kuchar
Alex Noren
Patrick Reed
Ian Poulter
Adam Hadwin
Brian Harman
Tiger Woods
Tyrell Hatton
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
Xander Schauffele

Coming Into Form Golfers

Identifying golfers who are starting to play well and jumping on them before everyone else can you an edge in your DraftKings DFS contests. Not so easy to spot for the Masters, where the field is full of quality players peaking for the event. The following golfers are showing signs of coming into form just in time to tackle Amen Corner:

Kyle Stanley
Russell Henley
Ryan Moore
Louis Oosthuizen
Bryson Dechambeau
Cameron Smith
Si-woo Kim

Similar Events

Majors are the four biggest events on the golf calendar and present a bigger challenge to every golfer in the field. Certain golfers thrive in the cauldron of major tournament play, while others wilt under the added pressure. The following golfers have played well at the most recent majors:

Justin Thomas
Hideki Matsuyama
Paul Casey
Rickie Fowler
Henrik Stenson
Matt Kuchar
Jordan Spieth
Jason Day
Rory McIlroy
Marc Leishman
Patrick Reed

Long Cut Streaks

It's vital to get as many of your line-up into the weekend if you want to succeed in your DraftKings DFS contests. The following golfers with the longest cut streaks in the field may be solid choices to maximise your points scored this week:
Paul Casey (27)
Matt Kuchar (25)
Patrick Cantlay (20)
Pat Perez (15)
Justin Rose (14)
Dustin Johnson (14)
Justin Thomas (14)
Branden Grace (14)
Tommy Fleetwood (13)
Thomas Pieters (13)
Adam Hadwin (13)
Jason Day (12)
Alex Noren (10)
Zach Johnson (10)
Brendan Steele (10)

Least Cuts Missed (Majors)

As stated above, majors are a different kettle of fish and its important to pick golfers who have proven to be consistent performers in them over recent years. The following participating golfers have missed the fewest cuts in majors in their past twelve majors (minimum 5 events played) and may be solid choices to maximise your points scored this week:
Jordan Spieth (0/12)
Jason Day (1/12)
Matt Kuchar (1/12)
Jon Rahm (1/6)
Fred Couples (1/5) - all Masters!
Dustin Johnson (2/12)
Justin Thomas (2/12)
Hideki Matsuyama (2/12)
Sergio Garcia (2/12)
Paul Casey (2/12)
Henrik Stenson (2/12)
Louis Oosthuizen (2/12)
Adam Scott (2/12)
Francesco Molinari (2/12)
Jason Dufner (2/12)
Charl Schwartzel (2/12)
Web Simpson (2/12)

Least Cuts Missed (Masters)

As stated above, Augusta knowledge is vital and its important to pick golfers who have proven to be consistent performers there in recent years. The following participating golfers have missed no cuts (minimum 3 events played) in the Masters in the past five seasons and may be solid choices to maximise your points scored this week:

Jason Day (0/5)
Adam Scott (0/5)
Matt Kuchar (0/5)
Rory McIlroy (0/5)
Justin Rose (0/5)
Jordan Spieth (0/4)
Jimmy Walker (0/4)
Paul Casey (0/3)
Bernd Wiesberger (0/3)
Charley Hoffman (0/3) 

Note that Tiger has never missed the cut at Augusta, but he hasn't played since 2015.

Most Strokes Gained Tee to Green

Although putting is said to be important at Augusta, many recent winners have not been great with the flat stick. Instead, the premium is on approach shots to leave you close to the hole or in the right part of the lightening fast, undulating greens. Of course, to hit good approach shots, you must be in a good position off the tee (unless you're Phil Mickelson!). The following golfers have the best strokes gained tee to green (per round) in the field on the US Tour:

Sergio Garcia (2.034)
Paul Casey (1.840)
Jordan Spieth (1.829)
Dustin Johnson (1.828)
Tommy Fleetwood(1.680)
Justin Thomas (1.667)
Adam Scott (1.633)
Kevin Chappell (1.593)
Tony Finau (1.451)
Hideki Matsuyama (1.303)
Bryson Dechambeau (1.278)
Brendan Steele (1.254)

Most DraftKings Average Points Per Game

This important metric shows the average points scored by each player in DraftKings contests this season. High values indicate golfers who have consistently delivered in contests and therefore could be good choices. The following golfers have the best DraftKings average points per game in the field:

Dustin Johnson (101.286)
Justin Thomas (97.333)
Justin Rose (93.864)
Phil Mickelson (92.167)
Tyrrell Hatton (92.045)
Jon Rahm (90.400)
Tommy Fleetwood (89.321)
Jason Day (89.200)
Pat Perez (87.667)
Sergio Garcia (85.556)
Brendan Steele (84.875)
Paul Casey (83.375)
Branden Grace (82.808)

High Salary DraftKings Picks ($7.6k and Up)

Normally, the golfers in this category are in the top echelon and therefore have the best stats. For the Masters, you could make a good case for most of the golfers in this category! Based on the above lists and/or their average points per game, the following players stand out:

Dustin Johnson
Jason Day
Matt Kuchar
Jordan Spieth
Justin Rose
Paul Casey
Justin Tomas
Rory McIlroy

Mid Salary DraftKings Picks ($6.9k-$7.5k)

It is usually possible to find some good mid-range picks for a tournament, as some golfers tend to be undervalued relative to their stats (of course, the opposite is also true!). Based on the above lists and /or their average points per game, the following players stand out in this category:

Xander Schauffele
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
Kevin Chappell
Adam Hadwin
Branden Grace
Brian Harman

Low Salary DraftKings Picks ($6.8k and Below)

It's tougher to find picks in this category, as it usually contains the lowest tier golfers with the worst stats. It is especially hard this week with almost all of the older former champions in this category. Based on the above lists and /or their average points per game, the following players are worth considering in this category:

Austin Cook
Si-woo Kim
Bernd Wiesberger
Kyle Stanley
Jimmy Walker
Fred Couples

Summary

Hopefully this analysis will help you identify some good picks for your Masters DraftKings contest. Check out Golf Predictor for more great data and analytical tools for the Masters. In addition to many useful stats and charts, you can filter the field by over fifty metrics, including DraftKings salary and average points scored, and create your dream DraftKings line-up!