Tuesday, 29 March 2016

New Golfer Streaks Added To Golf Predictor

Snapshot of new Rankings (Streaks) page, showing new steak data (TS & RS columns) and associated chart links

New Streaks panel on the Prediction Data page for Jason Day ahead of the 2016 WGC - Dell Match Play

I am pleased to announce the addition of useful new Tournament Streak and Rest Steak stats to Golf Predictor. The former shows how many consecutive tournaments each golfer in the field has played in the current season before the current event. Thus, it can be used as an indication of how fresh or tired each entrant might be on tournament week. Rest Streak is a related stat and shows how many weeks each golfer has had off since playing their last event in the current season. Obviously, one of these numbers always has to be zero for each golfer, after their first event of the season.

To facilitate these two news streaks, I have made several changes to Golf Predictor:
  1. I have created a new Rankings (Streaks) page in the Predictions menu that shows these new stats in columns, along with the existing cut streak and winless streak stats and charts. A snapshot of this new page is shown in the first screenshot above for the 2016 WGC - Dell Match Play.
  2. I have replaced the cut streak and winless streak columns on the main Rankings page with the Similar Weather and Similar Tournaments columns. The streak columns and charts have also been removed from the Rankings (Odds) page.
  3. I have created a new Streaks panel on the Prediction Data page for each golfer. The winless and cut streaks have been moved from the General panel to this new panel and the two new streaks have been added to it. This new panel can be seen in the second screenshot above for Jason Day ahead of the 2016 WGC - Dell Match Play
  4. The last tournament played in the current GP Season by the golfer is now also displayed in the new Streaks panel. This is shown for all golfers even for tournaments before these new streaks are available for and can be seen at the bottom of the panel in the second screenshot above.

It will now be easy to see who has had the longest/shortest break/run of tournaments using this new Rankings (Streaks) page. Both new streak columns are fully sortable and you can also see the best and worst using the four new charts added to the page:
  1. Shortest rest streaks in the field
  2. Longest rest streaks in the field
  3. Shortest tournament streaks in the field
  4. Longest tournament streaks in the field

These new chart links can be seen in the first screenshot above. This brings the total number of charts on the site to 463. Some notes on these new stats:

  1. To keep things simple, GP Weeks are used to count these streaks during the season. These will usually be equal to calendar weeks, except for weeks where there are no individual tournaments at all on either major tour, e.g. Ryder Cup week.
  2. Withdrawals are not counted unless the golfer finished at least one stroke play round before pulling out.
  3. Only individual tournaments on the two major tours that are covered by Golf Predictor* will contribute to these streaks. Other events that the golfer may play, e.g on another tour, such as the Web.com Tour or as a team (e.g. Ryder Cup), will not be counted.
  4. Non-stroke play (i.e. match play and Stableford) tournaments that the golfers withdrew from having played one round are not counted for these new streaks. This is because rounds are only tracked for stroke play events on Golf Predictor. However, this is a rare scenario, so it shouldn't be an issue.
  5. Golfers playing their first events of the season will be assigned a value of "n/a" for these streaks.
  6. The tournament streak information is now factored in to the GP algorithm, with longer streaks being penalised due to possible tiredness. Rest streak was already factored into the algorithm in a similar fashion to account for possible rustiness.
  7. These new streaks (and associated charts) are not available prior to week 12, 2016 (the week of the WGC - Dell Match Play and Puerto Rico Open at Coco Beach). 
  8. You may have to refresh an updated page to see the changes. 
  9. These four new charts will not be available until week four of any future GP season. Since these new streaks are based on season results, it doesn't make much sense to start charting until these stats start to matter!

I trust you will find these new streak stats useful for your tournament analysis. Any feedback (via comments on this article or email) would be most welcome. Like the other prediction data, non-subscribers can only see these new streak stats for golfers ranked 11-25 in the prediction rankings and will not be able to see the new charts. Therefore, sign up today and reap the full benefits of Golf Predictor, the premium professional golf statistics site.

    *GP covers all such tournaments except the small fielded junket near the end of the year that is Tiger's tournament! 

    No comments: