Wednesday, 11 November 2015

Same Region Form added to Golf Predictor

New Same Region Form page (for the 2015 WGC - HSBC Champions)
New Same Region panel  & Performance table column on the Prediction Data page (for Rory McIlroy in the 2015 WGC - HSBC Champions)

New Same Region tournament list on the Prediction Data page (for Rory McIlroy in the 2015 WGC - HSBC Champions)

In addition to the existing GP season, recent, course, tournament, similar tournament, similar weather, similar length course and time of season form on Golf Predictor, I am pleased to announce that geographic analysis has also been added to the system.

A new 'Same Region' option has been added to the Form menu and the functionality is available for tournaments from week 44, 2015 (the week of the WGC - HSBC Champions and the Sanderson Farms Championship). This analysis is based on the matching results for each golfer in the previous five/six seasons (see point 1 of the notes below) and should be very helpful for your fantasy golf, DFS golf or betting needs. It is well known that some golfers perform better or worse in certain parts of the world. This can be for several reasons, including:
  1. The golfer grew up, lived in or played often in the region at some stage in his life.
  2. The type of grass typically used on golf courses (particularly for the greens) in the region suits the golfer's game.
  3. The tournaments in this region are held at the time of year that the golfer typically plays best in.
  4. The golfer feels comfortable in the region, e.g. with the climate, type of course etc.

This new functionality allows you to easily spot the golfers in the field who perform well in the region that the tournament is being held in. The analysis breaks the world into the following 33 regions, roughly half in the Americas and half in the rest of the world:

Americas Regions (17)

California US
Eastern Canada
Eastern US
Florida Swing US
Florida US
Hawaii US
Mid Western US
Mid Western US East
Mountain US
North East US
North Western US/Western Canada
Northern US
South Eastern US
South Eastern US Atlantic
Texas US
West Coast Swing US
Western Desert US

Rest of the World Regions (16)

British Isles
Central Europe
Eastern Europe
Far East
Iberia/North Africa
Indian Ocean
Middle East
Northern Europe
South Africa
South Eastern Asia
South Eastern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe

Obviously, the first group of regions covers the US PGA Tour (and the shared events with the European PGA Tour!), while the second group is largely the more geographically diverse European PGA Tour (there are shared events with the US PGA Tour and the CIMB Classic is in South East Asia). The stats produced are similar to the other form stats available on Golf Predictor:
  1. Average finishing position and standard deviation (consistency).
  2. Best and worst finishing positions.
  3. Number of tournaments played, wins, top tens, missed cuts and withdrawals/disqualifications.
  4. Scoring average and stroke average.
  5. The Field Rank for the golfer in this new metric. The 'Average Field Rank' stat and chart have also been updated to include this new form metric.

The first screenshot above shows the new 'Same Region' form page and most of the stats listed above for the 2015 WGC - HSBC Champions field. This page is very similar to the existing form pages, and like those pages, is sorted by GP Rank and has fully sortable columns. Hovering over the golfer's first name will show his world ranking, as shown above for Rickie Fowler.

The final two screenshots above show snippets from the updated Prediction page for Rory McIlroy for the 2015 WGC - HSBC Champions. The second screenshot above shows the new 'Same Region' stats panel and the new Hist (R) column in the Performance panel. The third screenshot shows the list of  tournaments in the same region analysed for Rory McIlroy. Again, you can get more information by hovering over a tournament name, as shown in the final screenshot above.

 Some notes on this new functionality:
  1. The time scale analysed to produce these statistics is the previous five seasons, plus any results from the current season. This means that at the start of a new GP season (year), the stats will encompass the tournaments from previous five years, while at the end of that GP season, they will encompass six years.
  2. All 267 courses (all courses used on both tours since 2003) in the system have been updated with one of the regions specified above. Most of the regions are based on established geographical areas (e.g. Far East or American Mid West) or other logical groupings (e.g. Florida Swing). However, some course locations were not straightforward to categorise, so judgement calls had to be made in some instances.
  3. Some 90 of the above mentioned 267 courses have not been used in the previous five years, but they were also assigned a region, in case of future use on either major tour.
  4. As alluded to above and as you can see from the list of American regions, I have included "Florida Swing" and "West Coast Swing" as regions also. This is because these are important logical groups of tournaments every year on the US PGA Tour and therefore would be useful to aggregate for performance analysis purposes.
  5. The facilitating of the "Florida Swing" and "West Coast Swing" complicates the region analysis in several instances. For example, region analysis of tournaments in Florida not in the Florida Swing (e.g. The Players Championship), also include the Florida Swing events, but not vice versa. It's much more complicated for the West Coast Swing, because the US Open has been held at Torrey Pines and one of the events is in Arizona, technically the Western Desert US region. Therefore, region analysis of tournaments in California not in the West Coast Swing also use the California tournaments from the West Coast Swing, but not vice versa. Also, region analysis of West Coast Swing events do not include majors held on courses in the region, as these are held at different times of the year and the courses are set up differently. Finally, the PGA West course in Palm Desert and TPC Scottsdale in Arizona are also analysed for the Western Desert Region to give a comprehensive performance analysis on US desert courses.
  6. As alluded to above, these region stats have some crossover with time analysis and course type analysis. This is because regions such as the "Florida Swing" and "West Coast Swing" correspond to a specific time of the year. Also, courses in the some regions may largely use the same type of grass for climatic reasons, thereby giving an insight into a golfer's performance on such courses.
  7. Some regions have very few courses (e.g. The Indian Ocean region has only 1 in Mauritius), while others have quite a number of courses (e.g. the British Isles region has 36, of which 20 were used in the last five years).
  8. The region analysed is shown in the title of the data table on the 'Same Region' form page, in the title of the new 'Same Region' stats panel and heading for the matching tournament list on the golfer Prediction page (see screenshots above).
  9. I have also updated the Field Rank, Field Rank (Summary) and Field Rank (Form) pages with this new Same Region metric. All charts on these pages have have updated also.
  10. You may have to refresh a page to see the new Form menu option or the new stats/charts on Prediction pages.

These new stats also come with twelve new charts. In each case, the tournaments analysed are those that are in the period outlined in the first point above. The following charts have been added to the system:
  1. Top performers in the same region in the previous 5 years.
  2. Most consistent performers in the same region in the previous 5 years.
  3. Least consistent performers in the same region in the previous 5 years.
  4. Players with the most number of wins in the same region in the previous 5 years.
  5. Players with the biggest winning percentage in the same region in the previous 5 years.
  6. Players with the most number of top tens in the same region in the previous 5 years.
  7. Players with the biggest top ten finishes percentage in the same region in the previous 5 years.
  8. Players with the least number of cuts missed in the same region in the previous 5 years.
  9. Players with the smallest cuts missed percentage in the same region in the previous 5 years.
  10. Performance breakdown (wins/top tens/missed cuts/finishes/non-finishes) for a golfer in the same region in the previous 5 years.
  11. Results in the same region in the previous 5 years for the selected golfer (line chart).
  12. The Same Region stats panel has a new box plot, as shown above. 
These twelve new charts brings the total number of charts on the site to 457.   

This new functionality should greatly assist in picking golfers, depending on where the tournament is held. As you can probably tell from the length of this post, a lot of work has gone into this new analysis and I trust you will find it useful. As usual, any feedback (via comments on this article or email) would be most welcome. The new same region functionality is available to all users, although only for the golfers you are permitted to view (all golfers for subscribers, those ranked 11-25 for non-subscribers). In addition, non-subscribers will not be able to view all of the new charts listed above. Therefore, sign up today to get the most out of Golf Predictor, the premier European and US PGA Tour statistics site.

1 comment:

Golf Predictor Guru! said...

Added "Same Region" stat to more pages. More info here.