Monday, 30 November 2015

2015 - Week 48 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Nedbank Golf Challenge (European PGA Tour) and the Australian PGA Championship (European PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. While this marks the first year that the Australian PGA has been on the European Tour (and hence on Golf Predictor), it has a long history, dating all the way back to 1905. However this tournament history (or the last two years of course history) are not in Golf Predictor, so please factor that into your analysis.

Meanwhile, in South Africa, although the Sun City event has a large purse and a small field, only one really big name (Henrik Stenson) has made the trek to South Africa. That should change next year when the field expands further and it becomes part of the reduced Final Series on the European PGA Tour.

There is no event on the US PGA Tour this week, except for Tiger's invitational junket. As in previous years, Golf Predictor is not not covering that event.

Sunday, 29 November 2015

2015 - Week 47 Winner

Charl Schwartzel (ranked 7th by Golf Predictor) won the Alfred Dunhill Championship on the European PGA Tour. The 31 year old South African won his fourth title at Leopard Creek and although he won by four shots in the end, it wasn't his most convincing performance over the weekend. Our top ranked golfer, defending champion Branden Grace, finished in tied 8th. In an event that is usually difficult to predict, we had twelve of the top eighteen plus ties (12/26) in total. 

There was no event on the US PGA Tour this week.

Monday, 23 November 2015

2015 - Week 47 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Alfred Dunhill Championship (European PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. It's the first event of the 2016 European Tour, even though it's still 2015 and of course, it's not in Europe! Like previous years, there is a strong South African contingent and not much by way of international competition. However, having said that, there are a fair number of French golfers teeing it up at Leopard Creek for some reason!

There is no event on the US PGA Tour this week.

Sunday, 22 November 2015

2015 - Week 46 Winners

Rory McIlroy (ranked 1st by Golf Predictor) won the DP World Tour Championship, Dubai on the European PGA Tour. The 26 year old Northern Irishman won his first title since returning from injury with an impressive weekend performance in Dubai. In doing so, McIlroy sowed up the Race to Dubai for the third time in four years. He was pushed all the way for his fourth title of the year by Andy Sullivan. However, despite holding a three shot lead early in the final round, the Englishman was overpowered by McIlroy, who drove the ball imperiously over the weekend. After a lapse in concentration on the penultimate hole, McIlroy saved a bogey with a crucial thirty foot putt and held on to win by a single shot. Including the winner, we had twelve of the top seventeen plus ties (12/21) 

Kevin Kisner (ranked 3rd by Golf Predictor) won The RSM Classic on the US PGA Tour. The 31 year old American became the latest to win his first PGA Tour title with an emphatic victory in Georgia. After a series of near misses, including three play-off defeats, Kisner finally got over the line in some style. After taking a three shot lead into the final round, he came out firing and led by seven at the turn. That allowed him to coast home and win by six shots in the end. Our top ranked player, Matt Kuchar, finished in tied 25th and in an event that's usually hard to predict, we had only four of the top nine plus ties (4/17) overall. 

Saturday, 21 November 2015

Same Region Stat Added to More Pages


Custom Predictions page for the 2015 RSM Classic with new Region slider and HR column

Further to the recent addition of same region analysis to Golf Predictor, I am pleased to announce that three other pages have been updated with this new metric. These pages are:

  1. The Compare Field Rankings page on the Predictions menu. A colour coded HR (Historical -  Region) column has been added to the data table, showing the field rank for each selected golfer in that metric. The stack chart on this page has also been updated to include this new field ranking.
  2. The Compare Field Rankings (Tee-off Groups) page on the Predictions menu. Same changes as above.
  3. The Rankings (Custom) page on the Predictions menu. As shown in the screenshot above for the 2015 RSM Classic, there is a new Region slider and a new HR (Historical -  Region) column in the data table.

As a result of these changes, you can now compare the same region field rankings for your selected golfers and also factor in the same region performance into your custom predictions. Barring any oversights, his completes the upgrade of the system with the same region stats. Just another way to make Golf Predictor even better.



Tuesday, 17 November 2015

2015 - Week 46 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions/statistics for this week, the DP World Tour Championship, Dubai (European PGA Tour) and The RSM Classic (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. It's the last event of the season (but not the year!) on the European PGA Tour and the last event of the year (but not the season!) on the US Tour! Although Rory McIlroy is again leading the Race to Dubai heading into the season finale, this year he'll have to fend off several big name pursuers for the title. The field is more modest in Georgia, where it will be the last chance before January to put some FedEx Cup points in the bag.

Monday, 16 November 2015

2015 - Week 45 Winners

Kristoffer Broberg (ranked 52nd by Golf Predictor) won the BMW Masters on the European PGA Tour. The 29 year old Swede won maiden title at the first hole of a play-off with Patrick Reed. After both players had left their birdie efforts just short on the eighteenth in regulation, Broberg made no mistake in the play-off, taking the title with a birdie on the same hole. The Swede was feted by compatriots Henrik Stenson, Rikard Karlberg and Alex Noren and was understandably emotional after his break through win. Our top ranked player, Justin Rose, finished in tied 7th and we had eleven of the top seventeen plus ties (11/21).

Graeme McDowell (ranked 9th by Golf Predictor) won the OHL Classic at Mayakoba on the US PGA Tour. The 36 year old Northern Irish man won his first tournament on the US PGA Tour in over two years with a gutsy Monday finish in Mexico. McDowell put a poor year behind him to hole a crucial par putt on the last and also win at the first extra hole. McDowell did it in style, almost holing his five iron approach in the play-off with Jason Bohn and last week's winner, Russell Knox. Our top ranked player, Matt Kuchar, finished in tied 68th and in an event plagued by weather delays and which is usually hard to predict, we only had eight of the top seventeen plus ties (8/24).
 

Wednesday, 11 November 2015

Same Region Form added to Golf Predictor

New Same Region Form page (for the 2015 WGC - HSBC Champions)
New Same Region panel  & Performance table column on the Prediction Data page (for Rory McIlroy in the 2015 WGC - HSBC Champions

New Same Region tournament list on the Prediction Data page (for Rory McIlroy in the 2015 WGC - HSBC Champions)

In addition to the existing GP season, recent, course, tournament, similar tournament, similar weather and similar length course form, you can also see which golfers in the field perform better at various times of the year with the time performance analysis on Golf Predictor. Now, I am pleased to announce that geographic analysis has also been added to the system.

A new 'Same Region' option has been added to the Form menu and the functionality is available for tournaments from week 44, 2015 (the week of the WGC - HSBC Champions and the Sanderson Farms Championship). This analysis is based on the matching results for each golfer in the previous five/six seasons (see point 1 of the notes below) and should be very helpful for your fantasy golf, DFS golf or betting needs. It is well known that some golfers perform better or worse in certain parts of the world. This can be for several reasons, including:
  1. The golfer grew up, lived in or played often in the region at some stage in his life.
  2. The type of grass typically used on golf courses (particularly for the greens) in the region suits the golfer's game.
  3. The tournaments in this region are held at the time of year that the golfer typically plays best in.
  4. The golfer feels comfortable in the region, e.g. with the climate, type of course etc.

This new functionality allows you to easily spot the golfers in the field who perform well in the region that the tournament is being held in. The analysis breaks the world into the following 33 regions, roughly half in the Americas and half in the rest of the world:

Americas Regions (17)

California US
Eastern Canada
Eastern US
Florida Swing US
Florida US
Hawaii US
Mid Western US
Mid Western US East
Mountain US
North East US
North Western US/Western Canada
Northern US
South Eastern US
South Eastern US Atlantic
Texas US
West Coast Swing US
Western Desert US

Rest of the World Regions (16)

Australasia
British Isles
Caribbean
Central Europe
Eastern Europe
Far East
Iberia/North Africa
India
Indian Ocean
Middle East
Northern Europe
South Africa
South Eastern Asia
South Eastern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe

Obviously, the first group of regions covers the US PGA Tour (and the shared events with the European PGA Tour!), while the second group is largely the more geographically diverse European PGA Tour (there are shared events with the US PGA Tour and the CIMB Classic is in South East Asia). The stats  produced are similar to the other form stats available on Golf Predictor:
  1. Average finishing position and standard deviation (consistency).
  2. Best and worst finishing positions.
  3. Number of tournaments played, wins, top tens, missed cuts and withdrawals/disqualifications.
  4. Scoring average and stroke average.
  5. The Field Rank for the golfer in this new metric. The 'Average Field Rank' stat and chart have also been updated to include this new form metric.

The first screenshot above shows the new 'Same Region' form page and most of the stats listed above for the 2015 WGC - HSBC Champions field. This page is very similar to the existing form pages, and like those pages, is sorted by GP Rank and has fully sortable columns. Hovering over the golfer's first name will show his world ranking, as shown above for Rickie Fowler.

The final two screenshots above show snippets from the updated Prediction page for Rory McIlroy for the 2015 WGC - HSBC Champions. The second screenshot above shows the new 'Same Region' stats panel and the new Hist (R) column in the Performance panel. The third screenshot shows the list of  tournaments in the same region analysed for Rory McIlroy. Again, you can get more information by hovering over a tournament name, as shown in the final screenshot above.


 Some notes on this new functionality:
  1. The time scale analysed to produce these statistics is the previous five seasons, plus any results from the current season. This means that at the start of a new GP season (year), the stats will encompass the tournaments from previous five years, while at the end of that GP season, they will encompass six years.
  2. All 267 courses (all courses used on both tours since 2003) in the system have been updated with one of the regions specified above. Most of the regions are based on established geographical areas (e.g. Far East or American Mid West) or other logical groupings (e.g. Florida Swing). However, some course locations were not straightforward to categorise, so judgement calls had to be made in some instances.
  3. Some 90 of the above mentioned 267 courses have not been used in the previous five years, but they were also assigned a region, in case of future use on either major tour.
  4. As alluded to above and as you can see from the list of American regions, I have included "Florida Swing" and "West Coast Swing" as regions also. This is because these are important logical groups of tournaments every year on the US PGA Tour and therefore would be useful to aggregate for performance analysis purposes.
  5. The facilitating of the "Florida Swing" and "West Coast Swing" complicates the region analysis in several instances. For example, region analysis of tournaments in Florida not in the Florida Swing (e.g. The Players Championship), also include the Florida Swing events, but not vice versa. It's much more complicated for the West Coast Swing, because the US Open has been held at Torrey Pines and one of the events is in Arizona, technically the Western Desert US region. Therefore, region analysis of tournaments in California not in the West Coast Swing also use the California tournaments from the West Coast Swing, but not vice versa. Also, region analysis of West Coast Swing events do not include majors held on courses in the region, as these are held at different times of the year and the courses are set up differently. Finally, the PGA West course in Palm Desert and TPC Scottsdale in Arizona are also analysed for the Western Desert Region to give a comprehensive performance analysis on US desert courses.
  6. As alluded to above, these region stats have some crossover with time analysis and course type analysis. This is because regions such as the "Florida Swing" and "West Coast Swing" correspond to a specific time of the year. Also, courses in the some regions may largely use the same type of grass for climatic reasons, thereby giving an insight into a golfer's performance on such courses.
  7. Some regions have very few courses (e.g. The Indian Ocean region has only 1 in Mauritius), while others have quite a number of courses (e.g. the British Isles region has 36, of which 20 were used in the last five years).
  8. The region analysed is shown in the title of the data table on the 'Same Region' form page, in the title of the new 'Same Region' stats panel and heading for the matching tournament list on the golfer Prediction page (see screenshots above).
  9. I have also updated the Field Rank, Field Rank (Summary) and Field Rank (Form) pages with this new Same Region metric. All charts on these pages have have updated also.
  10. You may have to refresh a page to see the new Form menu option or the new stats/charts on Prediction pages.

These new stats also come with twelve new charts. In each case, the tournaments analysed are those that are in the period outlined in the first point above. The following charts have been added to the system:
  1. Top performers in the same region in the previous 5 years.
  2. Most consistent performers in the same region in the previous 5 years.
  3. Least consistent performers in the same region in the previous 5 years.
  4. Players with the most number of wins in the same region in the previous 5 years.
  5. Players with the biggest winning percentage in the same region in the previous 5 years.
  6. Players with the most number of top tens in the same region in the previous 5 years.
  7. Players with the biggest top ten finishes percentage in the same region in the previous 5 years.
  8. Players with the least number of cuts missed in the same region in the previous 5 years.
  9. Players with the smallest cuts missed percentage in the same region in the previous 5 years.
  10. Performance breakdown (wins/top tens/missed cuts/finishes/non-finishes) for a golfer in the same region in the previous 5 years.
  11. Results in the same region in the previous 5 years for the selected golfer (line chart).
  12. The Same Region stats panel has a new box plot, as shown above. 
These twelve new charts brings the total number of charts on the site to 457.   

This new functionality should greatly assist in picking golfers, depending on where the tournament is held. As you can probably tell from the length of this post, a lot of work has gone into this new analysis and I trust you will find it useful. As usual, any feedback (via comments on this article or email) would be most welcome. The new same region functionality is available to all users, although only for the golfers you are permitted to view (all golfers for subscribers, those ranked 11-25 for non-subscribers). In addition, non-subscribers will not be able to view all of the new charts listed above. Therefore, sign up today to get the most out of Golf Predictor, the premier European and US PGA Tour statistics site.


Tuesday, 10 November 2015

2015 - Week 45 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions/statistics for this week, the BMW Masters (European PGA Tour) and the OHL Classic at Mayakoba (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. Although there is no Rory McIlroy in China again this year, there is still a pretty strong field with seven of the top twenty in the world teeing it up. Meanwhile, except for Matt Kuchar and last week's big winner Russell Knox*, it's the usual second string line up for the Mexican tournament this year.


*Don't be surprised though, if he pulls out!

Monday, 9 November 2015

2015 - Week 44 Winners

Russell Knox (ranked 48th by Golf Predictor) won the WGC - HSBC Champions on the European/US PGA Tour. The 30 year old Scot finally won his first tour title with an assured final day performance in Shanghai. Knox was never really threatened on the back nine and was able to close out a two shot victory, in what was a great performance by a last minute reserve into the tournament, his very first WGC event. Our top ranked player, Rory McIlroy, finished in tied 11th place, despite food poisoning and lacklustre play by his high standards. Overall, we had eight of the top eighteen plus ties (8/18) in total.

Peter Malnati (ranked 79th by Golf Predictor) won the Sanderson Farms Championship on the US PGA Tour. The 28 year old American became the latest first time winner in the new wraparound season, winning by a shot, courtesy of an impressive long distance two putt par at the last under pressure. After torrential rain flooded the course, play had to be extended to Monday to complete the 72 holes. All the delays didn't faze Malnati however, who finished with 67 (-5) and endured a short wait while his pursuers failed to catch him. Our top ranked player, Jason Bohn, finished in tied 39th and we had only five of the top fourteen plus ties (5/19) in the weather plagued event. 

Monday, 2 November 2015

2015 - Week 44 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the WGC - HSBC Champions (European/US PGA Tour) and the Sanderson Farms Championship (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. Although world number one Jason Day isn't playing (due to the imminent arrival of his second child), there is still a very strong field for the last WGC of the season. While thirteen of the top twenty in the world will be teeing it up in Shanghai, a second string line up will be battling it out in Mississippi. Only five out of the world's top one hundred will be playing in the event, so there is a good chance of yet another first time winner!

2014/15 - Top 5 Shortest Courses on the US PGA Tour

Based on the course information in Golf Predictor, these were the shortest courses on the US PGA Tour in the wraparound 2014/15 season::

  1. Pebble Beach Golf Links (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am*) - 6816 yards, par 72.
  2. TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship) - 6841 yards, par 70.
  3. PGA West (Palmer Course (Humana Challenge in pship with the Clinton Foundation) - 6950 yards, par 70.
  4. Kuala Lumper G & CC (CIMB Classic) - 6985 yards, par 72.
  5. El Camaleon GC (OHL Classic at Mayakoba) - 6987 yards, par 71.

You can get more detailed information for the course lengths for GP Seasons (calendar years) by looking at the 'Shortest Courses' chart on the 'Other Stats/Tourn. Stats' page in the member section of Golf Predictor. Click on the "Lists" category opposite to see more such lists.


*This event is held on three different courses, all of which are under 7000 yards and would feature on this list. Pebble beach is the main course, as it is also used for the final round.

2014/15 - Top 5 Longest Courses on the US PGA Tour

Based on the course information in Golf Predictor, these were the longest courses on the US PGA Tour in the wraparound 2014/15 season:

  1. Chambers Bay (US Open), 7742 yards, par 70.
  2. Torrey Pines, South Course (Farmers Insurance Open) - 7698 yards, par 72.
  3. Quail Hollow CC (Wells Fargo Championship) - 7562 yards, par 72.
  4. Trump National Doral (WGC - Cadillac Championship) - 7528 yards, par 72. 
  5. Whistling Straits (US PGA Championship) - 7514 yards, par 72. 

You can get more detailed information for the course lengths for GP Seasons (calendar years) by looking at the 'Longest Courses' chart on the 'Other Stats/Tourn. Stats' page in the member section of Golf Predictor. Click on the "Lists" category opposite to see more such lists.


Sunday, 1 November 2015

2015 - Week 43 Winners

Victor Dubuisson (ranked 13th by Golf Predictor) won the Turkish Airlines Open on the European PGA Tour. The 25 year old Frenchman won his first title since winning his maiden title here two years ago. The normally impassive Dubuisson became very emotional after two putting the par five finishing hole for the winning birdie. Our top ranked player, Rory McIlroy, finished in tied 6th, despite not really firing on all cylinders. Overall, we had nine of the top eighteen plus ties (9/19).

Justin Thomas (ranked 12th by Golf Predictor) won the CIMB Classic on the US PGA Tour. The 22 year old American finally won his first tour title, winning by a single shot from a charging Adam Scott. Thomas made it hard on himself, double bogeying the fourteenth on Sunday and leaving himself a real tester for par on the last for the victory. However, he prevailed and became the third first time winner in a row on the 2015/16 US PGA Tour. Our top ranked player, Henrik Stenson, finished in tied 47th and we had ten of the top seventeen plus ties (10/20*). 


*Lee withdrew, promoting Summerhays into the top twenty of the GP rankings.