Tuesday 30 June 2015

Performance Likelihood Updates

Main ranking page showing new pop-up on the PL(%) column
I am pleased to announce a minor enhancement to the Performance Likelihood functionality on Golf Predictor. As can be seen in the screenshot above for last week's BMW International Open, you can now see how many tournaments a player has played on the tournament course in the previous five seasons by hovering over the PL(%) column.

This has been done to help your decision making. As noted in the original post on performance likelihood (linked to above), this metric is more accurate when there is full course history available for the golfer. When this is not the case, the algorithm has to rely on the season and similar event history alone and may overestimate the value. You can now easily see how many times the golfer has played on the course in the previous five seasons by simply hovering over the column. The same information has also been added to the hover text on the performance likelihood chart, which is available from the same page (as the "Most Likely to Perform" chart).

In addition, I have amended the performance likelihood algorithm to reduce the value returned when there is no course history for the golfer. This should result in more appropriate values for future tournaments in this situation.

Just another way to make Golf Predictor a little better!

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