Monday 5 August 2013

Some Statistics Updated on Golf Predictor

Some statistics have had to be updated on Golf Predictor. While inputting the results from last week's Reno-Tahoe Open, I noticed that the positions assigned to those golfers who missed the cut were incorrect. All such golfers were given a tie for 70th place, instead of their true position. This was a result of it being a Stableford competition and it also affected last year's results for the same tournament. Because some finishing positions were wrong for last year's event, some stats (e.g. season average and standard deviation) were slightly off for these golfers in subsequent tournaments. Luckily, this mainly only affected lesser known golfers who missed the cut in a second tier event taking place the same week as the WGC - Bridgestone Invitational. To remedy this problem, I have taken the following actions:
  1. I fixed the issue so it will not happen in the future.
  2. I fixed the incorrect positions for the affected golfers in the 2012 tournament.
  3. I ran scripts to update the affected season and last five events stats in the database for the affected golfers in subsequent events in the 2012 GP season.
  4. I ran scripts to update the affected similar weather and similar length course stats in the database for the affected golfers in subsequent events in the 2012 and 2013 GP seasons*.
  5. I re-ran the predictions for last week's Reno-Tahoe Open to fix the slightly incorrect tournament/course stats for the affected golfers.
  6. I updated the season statistics for 2012.

Note that except for point five above, I did not re-rank the golfers as the tournaments are in the past and the changes would have been negligible. Note also that the similar tournaments data may be still slightly incorrect for the affected golfers for events after last year's Reno-Tahoe Open. I plan further updates to the system in the near future to cater for the new "Final Series" tournament type on the 2013 European Tour that will also affect the stats for similar tournaments in the database. Therefore, I shall wait until then to update the stats affected by this processing error.

*Similar length course stats were not available in the system for the 2012 GP Season.

ADDENDUM: Please see this post for an update. 

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