Tuesday, 28 December 2010

Similar Weather Average Position Removed

The "Similar Weather Average Position" statistic has been removed from the golfer prediction pages on Golf Predictor. This was done because the method of computation could lead to confusion. On perusing the early 2011 season data (for the two European PGA Events already played), I noticed a large discrepancy in the season average and the similar weather average for golfers who had played in both events. For example, in the predictions for the South African Open, Louis Oosthuizen's season average was 69 (after finishing in that position in the first event of the season), while his similar weather average was about 125!

This occured due to the method of calculation for the similar weather average. Golf Predictor uses a number of metrics to calculate the similar weather average, e.g. wind speed. If the golfer has not played in any similar conditions for the metric in question, he is assigned a default value for that metric based on his world ranking. Finally, all the metrics are weighted and amalgamated into a single overall figure. Thus, if defaults are used for one or more of the metrics, the computed average could be markedly different from the season average even after just one tournament, as was the case in the above example. There was also a minor error in the algorithm, which admittedly didn't help! This slight error has been corrected and the weather component is still a part of the Golf Predictor algorithm. However, the similar weather average has been removed from the prediction page. Being an amalgam of several weighted metrics, it does not provide meaningful information unless the golfer has played in similar conditions for all metrics in the current season.

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