Wednesday 29 December 2010

Next Week's Predictions - Probable Delay

The predictions for next week, the Hyundai Tournament of Champions (US PGA Tour) and the Africa Open (European PGA Tour) will probably be a day late appearing on Golf Predictor. This is due to a New Year's trip abroad from Golf Predictor Headquarters! I will endeavour to produce the predictions as as soon as possible, but it unlikely to be done before Tuesday evening (GMT) next week. Apologies for any inconvenience caused.

Tuesday 28 December 2010

Similar Weather Average Position Removed

The "Similar Weather Average Position" statistic has been removed from the golfer prediction pages on Golf Predictor. This was done because the method of computation could lead to confusion. On perusing the early 2011 season data (for the two European PGA Events already played), I noticed a large discrepancy in the season average and the similar weather average for golfers who had played in both events. For example, in the predictions for the South African Open, Louis Oosthuizen's season average was 69 (after finishing in that position in the first event of the season), while his similar weather average was about 125!

This occured due to the method of calculation for the similar weather average. Golf Predictor uses a number of metrics to calculate the similar weather average, e.g. wind speed. If the golfer has not played in any similar conditions for the metric in question, he is assigned a default value for that metric based on his world ranking. Finally, all the metrics are weighted and amalgamated into a single overall figure. Thus, if defaults are used for one or more of the metrics, the computed average could be markedly different from the season average even after just one tournament, as was the case in the above example. There was also a minor error in the algorithm, which admittedly didn't help! This slight error has been corrected and the weather component is still a part of the Golf Predictor algorithm. However, the similar weather average has been removed from the prediction page. Being an amalgam of several weighted metrics, it does not provide meaningful information unless the golfer has played in similar conditions for all metrics in the current season.

Thursday 23 December 2010

2010 - Tour Championship Predictions Re-run

The predictions for the 2010 Tour Championship pres. by Coca-Cola on the US PGA Tour have had to be re-run on Golf Predictor. This was due to a naming discrepancy in the 2010 tournament name which prevented the tournament history from being calculated. It doesn't seem to have affected the rankings significantly, but I apologise for any inconvenience caused. Thanks also to the member who brought this to my attention.

Full 2011 US PGA Tour Schedule now on Golf Predictor

The complete 2011 US PGA Tour schedule is now on Golf Predictor. That thankfully completes the input of tournaments for another year! The CIMB Asia Pacific Classic Malaysia event does not appear to be an official PGA event in the 2011 season, but I have added it to the roster for the time being at least. We are now ready for the commencement of the season in earnest after the holidays!

Wednesday 22 December 2010

2010 Season Statistics available on Golf Predictor

The 2010 season stats now available on Golf Predictor. No surprise who's on top this year - Lee Westwood after his ultra consistent year. The new world number one's average last season was impressively Tiger like (well, Tiger like before the wheels came off!). As for Tiger himself, he plummeted down to 21st, his first time out of the top two since Golf Predictor's records began (Ernie Els pipped him in 2005 for his only other non-top finish).

Interestingly, Martin Kaymer is only 10th in the season ranking, while his rival for the Race to Dubai title in 2010 and fellow joint European Golfer of the Year, Graeme McDowell, finished in 5th. On the American front, Golfer of the Year Jim Furyk, is 12th, while Steve Stricker proved to be the most consistently good American, just beating Matt Kuchar for 2nd place. Among world players, Retief Goosen was the most consistently good in 9th place, ahead of his countryman Ernie Els in 15th.

Tuesday 21 December 2010

Full 2011 European PGA Tour Schedule now on Golf Predictor

Further to this earlier post, the complete 2011 European PGA Tour schedule is now on Golf Predictor. As stated previously, some courses and sponsors are unknown at this time, but they will be added to the system once they become known. In the meantime, a default course called "TBA" has been added to Golf Predictor for events without a confirmed host course. Now, only the 2011 US PGA Tour schedule to do!

Monday 20 December 2010

Golf Predictor on Holidays!

Now that the last event this calendar year is over, it's time for a well deserved break from Twitter, the blog and from the main site itself! Unless something extraordinary happens in the golf world over the holiday period, that is! The site will, of course, be back in time for the first events of the 2011 calendar year.

I'd like to take this opportunity to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year, especially subscribers!! Thanks to everyone for using the site in 2010 and looking forward to a great 2011 season on Golf Predictor.

Sunday 19 December 2010

2011 - Week 2 Winner

Ernie Els (ranked 1st by Golf Predictor) won the rain affected South African Open Championship. The Big Easy secured his fifth national open title, leading in a trio of home ground major champions that also comprised of Retief Goosen and Louis Oosthuizen in second and third place respectively. Charl Schwartzel rounded off a great tournament for the bigger names in home grown golf by finishing in fourth!

The players had to play the two final rounds on Sunday after the opening day's play was washed out. However, the task was made a little easier by the par three fourth hole being unplayable due to flooding.
Including predicting the winner, we had ten of the top fourteen plus ties (10/20) in total.

Monday 13 December 2010

2011 - Week 2 Predictions Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the South African Championship (European PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. There is a large contingent of South African talent playing in their home Open this week, with six of them taking the top six places in the prediction rankings. After this tournament, it's a well deserved Christmas break for the golfers (and me!).

2011 - Week 1 Winner

Pablo Martin (ranked 20th by Golf Predictor) won the 2011 European PGA Tour season opener, the Alfred Dunhill Championship, for the second year running. The Spaniard could even afford to triple bogey the 17th hole on Sunday and still retain his title by two shots. Our top ranked player, Louis Oosthuizen, finished in tied 69th, but we had nine of the top fifteen plus ties (9/20) in total.

Thursday 9 December 2010

Slight Issue And Workaround

There is currently an issue on Golf Predictor for all users with "US" selected in their profile as the default tour ('Default Tour 2' field only). This issue will result in an error if users try and access most of the prediction pages on the "Stats Analysis" menu in the member section.

This is happening because there are no 2011 US Tour predictions in the system as yet, but there is a Euro Tour prediction since last Monday. This is causing an error when displaying the page with US tour as the default tour. Unfortunately, due to travel and work commitments, I may not be fix the issue until next week.

The workaround in the meantime is to change your 'Default Tour 2' profile field to "Both" for the time being, which allows you to see the pages. You will also get to see the European PGA Tour events too for the moment, but you can manually set the tour filter until I am able to fix the issue. I apologise for any inconvenience caused.

Monday 6 December 2010

2011 - Week 1 Predictions Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Alfred Dunhill Championship (European PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. After the huge one week break since the end of the long 2010 season, the long 2011 European PGA Tour season starts again! I'm sure one of the South Africans would love to get off to a great start to the season on home soil.