Friday, 15 October 2010

How to Spot Value Bets with Golf Predictor

The purpose of this article is to show just how easy it is to spot value bets using Golf Predictor. We provide an unbiased (i.e. true, based on their statistics) ranking of all golfers in the field for a particular tournament. Bookmakers, on the other hand, adjust their rankings in order to maximise profit for themselves (naturally!). This so-called "public opinion spread" means that, for example, they cut the odds for golfers they think will attract more bets. However, being more (or less) heavily backed does not mean a golfer is more (or less) likely to win/perform in a tournament.

You can therefore compare your bookies odds with our rankings to identify undervalued or overvalued golfers easily. For selected tournaments, this is done automatically on the site using the prices from various European bookies. Good and bad bets are colour coded in green and red on the Prediction Rankings (Odds) page for easy identification. On any given week, there will usually be discrepancies between the unbiased rankings for an event and those for any bookmaker. Some players will be ranked too high (overvalued) by the bookie and some will be consequently ranked too low (undervalued). Before the tournament starts, you should look for the latter near the top of the Golf Predictor rankings as these undervalued golfers are a good bet for at least a top ten finish.

Of course, with Golf Predictor, you can drill down to see all the golfer statistics, so you can make up your own mind whether your bookie has really got it wrong! You should also check the field rankings and some (or all) of the course/tournament/similar tournaments/season/last 5/similar weather/similar length course/same region/same season segment history data on Golf Predictor for the undervalued golfer to verify that he would be a good pick. The 'Compare Form' pages are an excellent way to compare various metrics (e.g. finishing position, round scores, cuts and finishing score) in the recent/historical/similar events for your selected golfers. Finally, you can even apply your own custom weightings to various metrics and rank the entire field accordingly. You can then compare the results to your bookie's list and find your own value bets!

As an example, Heath Slocum was ranked 9th by Golf Predictor for the 2010 McGladrey Classic based on his statistics, but was ranked tied 19th by a prominent bookie. This made him a good bet for at least a top ten finish in the tournament as he was significantly undervalued. I duly tweeted as much before the event and who went on to actually win it? Yes, you've guessed it, Heath Slocum! We won't get a winner like that every time, of course, but you will find value most weeks using the many statistics and features on Golf Predictor.

No comments: