The overall GP (Golf Predictor) score for each golfer in a tournament is the normalised chance that s/he (The occasional woman also plays!) has of winning/playing well in the tournament. The GP score is based on the statistics available for that golfer and is computed as an easy to understand percentage. The higher this percentage, the greater the chance of that golfer winning the event.
In simple terms, a GP score of 100% would represent the top world ranked golfer in the field with perfect statistics in all the metrics used, e.g. all season, in the past on the same course, in the same tournament and at similar events. The golfer scores are normalised to this perfect score i.e. they are all compared to this idealised golfer and lose points in proportion to their statistics and past performances.
So, the GP score is not a pure mathematical probability. Tiger Woods could have a GP score of 90%, but even he would never have a pure 90% chance of winning in a field of 160 golfers. If all the golfers were of equal ability, the pure probability would be 1/160=0.625% for any golfer to win. The GP score is a valid measure of likely success and, like bookie odds, the relative difference between two GP scores is a measure of how much more likely one golfer is to perform well than another.
In simple terms, a GP score of 100% would represent the top world ranked golfer in the field with perfect statistics in all the metrics used, e.g. all season, in the past on the same course, in the same tournament and at similar events. The golfer scores are normalised to this perfect score i.e. they are all compared to this idealised golfer and lose points in proportion to their statistics and past performances.
So, the GP score is not a pure mathematical probability. Tiger Woods could have a GP score of 90%, but even he would never have a pure 90% chance of winning in a field of 160 golfers. If all the golfers were of equal ability, the pure probability would be 1/160=0.625% for any golfer to win. The GP score is a valid measure of likely success and, like bookie odds, the relative difference between two GP scores is a measure of how much more likely one golfer is to perform well than another.
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