Tuesday, 18 February 2020

2020 WGC - Mexico Championship - Value DFS Picks

Based on the statistics on Golf Predictor for the 2020 WGC - Mexico Championship, here is my analysis of the tournament for DFS (DraftKings) purposes. Although there are some high profile absentees this year, there is still an impressive field teeing it up at Chapultepec. Anyone can pick the top golfers for their line-up, but it's the roster fillers that can make or break your chances. Therefore, I will concentrate on low and mid salary picks and exclude any golfers above $7600. Of course, you are free to disagree and log in to Golf Predictor to make your own informed choices for the event!

Approach

To maximise your scoring potential, it's important to get as many of your line-up performing well as possible. Therefore, I will look for golfers with a good recent record in each of the stats examined. There is no cut at WGC events and lower salaried golfers generally have little or no course or WGC experience. This makes the task more difficult than usual, but for this tournament, the stats I will look at are current form, course/tournament form and similar tournament (WGC) form.

Current Form Golfers

The following list of (mostly European Tour) golfers have relatively good recent records or long cut streaks in their salary bracket:

Zach Murray (Euro Tour) - $6000
Benjamin Hebert (Euro Tour, excluding one event) - $6300
Mike Lorenzo-Vera (Euro Tour, excluding last event) - $6400
Ryan Fox (Euro Tour, excluding one event) - $6400
Marcus Kinhult (Euro Tour, excluding one event) - $6500
Matt Wallace (Euro Tour, excluding one event) - $6600
Carlos Ortiz (excluding one event) - $6600
Lucas Herbert (Euro Tour) - $6700
Jazz Janewattananond - $6700
Brendan Todd - $6800
Lee Westwood (Euro Tour, excluding last event) - $6900 
Matthias Schwab - $6900 
Kurt Kitayama (mostly Euro Tour) - $7200
Robert MacIntyre (Euro Tour, excluding last event) - $7200
Tyrell Hatton (was out injured) - $7400
Corey Connors (excluding last event) - $7500
Victor Perez (Euro Tour) - $7600

Course/Tournament Specialists

Not many golfers below $7600 have good records (or any record!) in their salary bracket at the tournament itself (especially at the course). The few that do are:

Danny Willett (event) - $7000
Francesco Molinari - $7100
Charles Howell III - $7100
Tyrell Hatton - $7400
Graeme McDowell (event) - $7500
Rafa Cabrera Bello - $7600

WGC Performers

Not many golfers below $7600 have good records (or any record!) in WGC events in their salary bracket. Those that do are:

Lucas Glover - $6800 
Lee Westwood - $6900 
Francesco Molinari - $7100
Charles Howell III - $7100
Kevin Kisner - $7200
Kevin Na - $7300
Billy Horschel - $7300
Tyrell Hatton - $7400
Bernd Wiesberger - $7400
Byeong-Hun An - $7500
Graeme McDowell - $7500
Victor Perez (one event - 4th place) - $7600
Rafa Cabrera Bello - $7600

Summary

Hatton appears in all three categories, but he is coming back after a wrist operation so he might be a risky choice. Molinari, Perez, Cabrera Bello, Howell III, Westwood and McDowell all appear in two categories, so they could be worth considering as good low and mid value DFS DraftKings picks this week.


Monday, 17 February 2020

2020 - Week 8 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the WGC - Mexico Championship (European/US PGA Tour) and the Puerto Rico Open (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. Most eyes will be on Mexico, where a quality field has once again assembled for the first WGC event of the year. Despite several high profile absentees, there's still fifteen of top twenty in the world rankings playing in Mexico City. As usual, there's a second string line up for the Puerto Rico event as all the big names are playing in the WGC. That will give some of the lesser lights a great chance of tasting success on tour!

2020 - Week 7 Winners

Adam Scott (ranked 14th by Golf Predictor) won the Genesis Invitational on the US PGA Tour. The 39 year old Australian won his fourteenth tour title in Los Angeles against a high quality field. With nine of the top ten in the world competing, Scott took his first tour title in four years. On a day where many of the contenders failed to make any serious progress, the Australian managed to stay clear of the field for most of the final day. Indeed, even Scott himself had to overcome an early wobble, before steadying the ship to take the title by two shots. Our top ranked golfer, Rory McIlroy, had a poor final day, but still managed to finish in tied 5th. Overall, we had eight of the top seventeen plus ties (8/22) in total, in an event where many of the highly ranked players failed to perform.

This was no event on the European Tour this week.

Saturday, 15 February 2020

Form Golfers (Field) Page Added to Golf Predictor

 
 Composite image of the Field Rankings (Field) page for the 2020 Genesis Invitational.


I am pleased to announce the addition of more donor only advanced functionality to Golf Predictor. Similar to the recently added Field Ranking (Field) page, this very useful new Form Golfers (Field) page also shows colour coded data for the entire field in one place. However, on this page, you can select to see the following data for the field in one place:
  1. Finishing position
  2. Round 1 score 
  3. Round 2 score 
  4. Round 3 score  
  5. Final Round score
  6. Made Cut
  7. Finishing score (to par)  
  You can also select which tournaments are examined for the above data:
  1. All tournaments
  2. Similar events (regular/WGC/major/FedEx) 
  3. Same course/tournament
  4. Same region 
In each case, the last ten matching tournaments (T1-10, with T10 being the most recent) will be shown for each golfer and you will be able to discern the form of the field at a glance. This new page is available from the 'Form' menu in the Member section. As can be seen in the screenshot above for the 2020 Genesis Invitational, these scores/finishing positions are colour coded and the average value is calculated for each golfer. As an added bonus for DraftKings DFS players, the DraftKings salary (hover over it for average points per game!) is also displayed on this new page. This should greatly help you make good selections for your DFS contests. 

Some notes on this new page :
  1. As this new page is computationally intensive, this data restricted to the current week's events, and is available after the field stats are created and before the results are input into the system. This is approximately from Monday evening to Sunday evening (GMT) of the tournament week.
  2. Further to the above point, you cannot change the GP Season in the drop down box.
  3. To keep things manageable, there is no sorting on the form data. However, you can sort by GP Rank, golfer name and DraftKings salary.
  4. To ensure even the longest names can appear in the space available, the golfer names are displayed in one column in the Lastname, Firstname format.
  5. Further to the above point, I have changed the Field Rank (Field) page to display the names in the same format (was Lastname, Firstname initial).
  6. Golfers with no data for a metric are assigned "n/a" in the table and are skipped for the average calculation. These metrics are colour coded brown, as shown in the screenshot above. Golfers with no DraftKings information are also assigned "n/a".
  7. Hovering over a golfer name will show a summary of the performance in the matching (up to ten) tournaments. This is shown above for Rory McIlroy.
  8. Hovering over a tournament (T1-10) in the table for a golfer will show more information about that tournament and the golfer's performance in it. This is shown above for the T4 column for Rory McIlroy.
  9. There is a key table at the bottom of the page explaining the column headers.
  10. I have had to edit the Form menu as there is now just too much functionality in it! To make space for this new addition and keep the Form menu to a reasonable size, I have converted the Performance Analysis options (Rounds 1 to 3) into a group.
This great new page should prove very useful for deciding on good picks for upcoming tournaments, especially for DraftKings DFS contests. As this is a donor only feature, free site users will only see the data for golfers ranked 11-25 by the GP algorithm. However, you can donate after you log in to see the data for the entire tournament field. So, please consider donating today to reap the full benefits of Golf Predictor, the premium professional golf statistics site.

Tuesday, 11 February 2020

2020 Genesis Invitational - Value DFS Picks

Based on the statistics on Golf Predictor for the 2020 Genesis Invitational, here is my analysis of the tournament for DFS (DraftKings) purposes. The field is stacked with top players with new world number one Rory McIlroy and the recently usurped Brooks Koepka among the nine of the top ten in the world teeing it up at Riviera. Anyone can pick the top golfers for their line-up, but it's the roster fillers that can make or break your chances. Therefore, I will concentrate on low and mid salary picks and exclude any golfers above $7600. Of course, you are free to disagree and log in to Golf Predictor to make your own informed choices for the event!

Approach

To maximise your scoring potential, it's important to get as many of your line-up through the cut as possible. Therefore, I will look for golfers with a good recent record in each of the stats examined. This generally means relatively long cut streaks, although in some cases, I allow one aberration if the golfer's record is good otherwise. Golfers with shorter streaks of good results will also be listed. For this tournament, the stats I will look at are current form, course/tournament form and same region form.

Current Form Golfers

The following surprisingly long list of golfers have relatively good recent records or long cut streaks in their salary bracket:

C.T. Pan (excluding one event)  - $6200
Kevin Tway (excluding one event)  - $6200
Talor Gooch - $6300
Scott Stallings (excluding last event) - $6400
Cameron Tringale (excluding one event) - $6500
Pat Perez (excluding last event) - $6500
Denny McCarthy- $6600
Dylan Frittelli (excluding one event)  - $6700
Matt Jones (excluding one event)  - $6700
Patrick Rodgers (excluding last event)  - $6800
Andrew Putnam (excluding last event)  - $6800
Carlos Ortiz (excluding one event)  - $6800
Jhonattan Vegas (excluding last event)  - $6800
Brian Harman - $6900
J.T. Poston (excluding one event) - $6900
Corey Connors - $7000
Jim Furyk (excluding last event) - $7000
Erik van Rooyen (excluding last event) - $7000
Matthew Wolfe (excluding last event) - $7100
Danny Willett (excluding one event) - $7100
Adam Hadwin (excluding one event) - $7200   
Russell Knox (excluding last event) - $7200
Scott Piercy - $7200
Alex Noren - $7300
Joaquin Niemann (excluding one event) - $7300
Cameron Champ  - $7400
Brendan Todd  - $7400
Ryan Palmer (excluding last year) - $7600
Max Homa - $7500
Branden Grace (excluding last event) - $7500
Cameron Smith (excluding last event) - $7500
Keegan Bradley (excluding one event) - $7500      
Ryan Moore (excluding last year) - $7600
Kevin Na (excluding one event) - $7600

Course/Tournament Specialists

The following golfers have relatively good records in their salary bracket at the tournament itself:

Steve Stricker - $6100
Jason Dufner (excluding last year) - $6300 
Martin Laird (excluding last year)- $6500
James Hahn (excluding one year) - $6500
Cameron Tringale (excluding his last outing here) - $6500
Pat Perez (excluding one year) - $6500
Charley Hoffman (excluding last event) - $6700
Jim Furyk (excluding one year) - $7000
Jason Kokrak - $7100
Nick Taylor (excluding one year) - $7200 
Adam Hadwin - $7200 
Charles Howell III - $7500
Cameron Smith - $7500  
Kevin Na - $7600

Same Region Performers

The following golfers have relatively good recent records or long cut streaks in their salary bracket in the same region as this week's event:

Sam Ryder (excluding one event) - $6200
Troy Merritt (excluding one event) - $6200
Jason Dufner (excluding last year) - $6300  
Cameron Tringale (excluding one event) - $6500
Sung-Hoon Kang (excluding one event) - $6700
Patrick Rodgers (excluding last event)  - $6800
Brian Harman - $6900
J.T. Poston - $6900
Rafa Cabrera Bello (excluding last event) - $7300
Scott Piercy - $7200
Adam Hadwin (excluding last event) - $7200  
Russell Knox (excluding last event) - $7200 
Max Homa - $7500
Cameron Smith - $7500
Keegan Bradley (excluding one event) - $7500 

Summary

Hadwin, Tringale and Smith feature in all three categories, so they might be good low and mid value DFS DraftKings picks this week. Homa, Dufner, Bradley, Knox, Poston, Perez, Piercy, Na and Harman all appear in two categories, so they could be worth considering also.




Monday, 10 February 2020

2020 - Week 7 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Genesis Invitational (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. It's the last week of the California swing on the US PGA Tour this week and there's a real quality field in Los Angeles. Nine of the top ten in the world rankings are teeing it up at Riviera, led by new number one Rory McIlroy, who has just reclaimed top spot from Brooks Koepka.

This is no event on the European Tour this week.

2020 - Week 6 Winners

Min Woo Lee (ranked 8th by Golf Predictor) won the ISPS Handa Vic Open on the European PGA Tour. The 21 year old Australian won his maiden tour title in front of home fans in Australia. In doing so, Lee made it a unique family affair, emulating his sister who has won the female event twice. Lee was well clear on the final day, until a brilliant finish by Ryan Fox in the windy conditions meant he onlyhad a one shot lead going to the last. However, Lee birdied the finishing hole to put a little more daylight between him and the fast finishing Kiwi. Our top ranked player, Lucas Herbert, finished tied 12th and in the event with a poor field and challenging weather, we had six of the top twenty plus ties (6/21).

Nick Taylor (ranked 37th by Golf Predictor) won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am on the US PGA Tour. The 31 year old Canadian won his second tour event with a wire to wire victory on the scenic Pacific layout(s). Despite a wobble on the back nine on Sunday in very windy conditions, Taylor steadied the ship to win by four shots from event specialist Kevin Streelman. Our top ranked player, Dustin Johnson, failed to shake off the effects of a long journey from Saudi Arabia, finishing in tied 32nd with a poor finish. Overall, we had eight of the top eighteen plus ties (8/24) in the weather affected event.

Tuesday, 4 February 2020

2020 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am - Value DFS Picks

Based on the statistics on Golf Predictor for the 2020 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, here is my analysis of the tournament for DFS (DraftKings) purposes. Anyone can pick the top golfers for their line-up, but it's the roster fillers that can make or break your chances. Therefore, I will concentrate on low and mid salary picks and exclude any golfers above $7600. Of course, you are free to disagree and log in to Golf Predictor to make your own informed choices for the event!

Approach

To maximise your scoring potential, it's important to get as many of your line-up through the cut as possible. Therefore, I will look for golfers with a good recent record in each of the stats examined. This generally means relatively long cut streaks, although in some cases, I allow one aberration if the golfer's record is good otherwise. Golfers with shorter streaks of good results will also be listed. For this tournament, the stats I will look at are current form, course/tournament form and same region form.

Current Form Golfers

The following fairly long list of golfers have relatively good recent records or long cut streaks in their salary bracket:

Ryan Brehm (excluding one event) - $6200
Ricky Barnes (excluding last event) - $6300
Stewart Cink (excluding one event) - $6500
Zac Blair (excluding one event) - $6700
Brian Stuard (excluding last event) - $6900
Chase Seiffert  - $6800
Matt Jones (excluding last event) - $7000 
Henrik Norlander (excluding last event) - $7000 
Cameron Tringale (excluding last event) - $7000 
Mark Hubbard (excluding one event) - $7100
Matthew Nesmith - $7100
Harry Higgs (excluding one event) - $7200
Maverick McNealy - $7300
Sung-Hoon Kang (excluding one event) - $7300
Pat Perez  - $7500
Lucas Glover (excluding one event) - $7600
Scott Stallings - $7600

Course/Tournament Specialists

The following golfers have relatively good records in their salary bracket at the tournament itself:

Jonathan Byrd - $6000
Alex Cejka - $6200 
Ricky Barnes (excluding one year) - $6300
Luke Donald (excluding one year) - $6500
Sean O'Hair (note: non-finish last year)  - $6800
Kevin Chappell (excluding one year) - $6800
Brian Gay - $6900
Nick Taylor (excluding one year) - $7000
Cameron Tringale (excluding last event) - $7000  
Kevin Streelman - $7400
Pat Perez (excluding last year) - $7500
Scott Stallings (excluding last year) - $7600

Same Region Performers

The following golfers have relatively good recent records or long cut streaks in their salary bracket in the same region as this week's event:

Ryan Brehm - $6200
Tim Wilkinson (excluding last event) - $6600
Doc Redman - $6800
Sean O'Hair (excluding one event, one non-finish & no event this year)  - $6800
Brian Stuard (excluding last event) - $6900
Nick Taylor (excluding one event) - $7000
Mark Hubbard - $7100
Charley Hoffman (excluding one event) - $7200
Sung-Hoon Kang - $7300
Cameron Davis - $7300

Summary

No one features in all three categories, but Brehm, Taylor, Hubbard, Stuard (again this week!), Barnes, Kang, Perez and Stallings all appear in two. Therefore, they might be worth considering as low and mid value DFS DraftKings picks this week. O'Hair also features in two categories, but given his long standing injury problems, he may be a brave choice.




Monday, 3 February 2020

2020 - Week 6 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the ISPS Handa Vic Open (European PGA Tour) and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (US PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. The California swing continues this week on the US Tour, where a weaker field than normal has assembled to play with the stars. There are only three of the top twenty in the world rankings this year, led by world number five and runner-up in the Middle East last week Dustin Johnson, teeing it up in the annual pro-am at scenic Pebble Beach and two other nearby courses. Meanwhile, the European PGA Tour is back in Australia for the second year of the weak fielded mixed event in Victoria.

Tuesday, 28 January 2020

2020 Waste Management Phoenix Open - Value DFS Picks

Based on the statistics on Golf Predictor for the 2020 Waste Management Phoenix Open, here is my analysis of the tournament for DFS (DraftKings) purposes. Anyone can pick the top golfers for their line-up, but it's the roster fillers that can make or break your chances. Therefore, I will concentrate on low and mid salary picks and exclude any golfers above $7600. Of course, you are free to disagree and log in to Golf Predictor to make your own informed choices for the event!

Approach

To maximise your scoring potential, it's important to get as many of your line-up through the cut as possible. Therefore, I will look for golfers with a good recent record in each of the stats examined. This generally means relatively long cut streaks, although in some cases, I allow one aberration if the golfer's record is good otherwise. Golfers with shorter streaks of good results will also be listed. For this tournament, the stats I will look at are current form, course/tournament form and same region form.

Current Form Golfers

The following golfers have relatively good recent records or long cut streaks in their salary bracket:

Mark Hubbard (excluding one event) - $6200
C.T. Pan (excluding last event) - $6500
Brian Stuard - $6600
Kevin Tway (excluding one event) - $6700
Talor Gooch - $7000
Matt Jones - $7000
Max Homa - $7100
Scott Piercy - $7100
Denny McCarthy - $7200
Tom Hoge (hot last 3 events) - $7400
Andrew Putnam - $7500
Vaughn Taylor - $7500
J.T. Poston (excluding one event) - $7600

Course/Tournament Specialists

The following golfers have relatively good records in their salary bracket at the tournament itself:

Chris Kirk - $6300
John Huh - $6400
Brian Stuard - $6600
Martin Laird - $6700
Brian Gay - $6700
Matt Jones - $7000
Zach Johnson (excluding last event) - $7300
Charley Hoffman - $7400
Brendan Steele (excluding last year) - $7500

Same Region Performers

The following golfers have relatively good recent records or long cut streaks in their salary bracket in the same region as this week's event:

Mark Hubbard - $6200
Trey Mullinax - $6500
Kevin Chappell (excluding last event) - $6500
Sam Ryder (excluding last event) - $6600
Brian Stuard - $6600
Max Homa - $7100
Scott Piercy - $7100
Emiliano Grillo (excluding last event) - $7300
Zach Johnson (excluding last event) - $7300
J.T. Poston - $7600
Russell Knox - $7600

Summary

Brian Stuard looks like a great choice as he features in all three lists. Scott Piercy, Max Homa, Matt Jones, J.T. Poston and Mark Hubbard all feature in two of the lists, so they might be worth considering as low and mid value picks this week.