Tuesday, 17 March 2020

Golf Predictor Donations -Coronavirus Update

As per my social media post the other day, all valued Golf Predictor donors will have their donation period frozen while the world is in Coronavirus lock down. That way, they will retain access to the extra features for actual tournaments. I will extend everyone's donation periods when things get back to normal in the golf world. Donor's accounts will be extended by the amount of time the tournaments were not held.
 

Monday, 16 March 2020

'Tournament Winners by Round Rank' Page Enhanced

2020 US PGA Tour winners (to date) with new extra stats panel

Further to this post, I have added a useful new stats panel to the 'Tournament Winners by Round Rank' page on Golf Predictor. This new panel is located under the existing table of winners, as shown in the screenshot above for 2020 US PGA Tour events (up to the week of the Arnold Palmer Invitational). You can now read the season breakdown of the winners' positions after each round directly off the screen or see the breakdown visually with the pop-up charts available on the final row of the new panel. You can also see the average position for the winners after each round and how many rounds this was calculated over. Some notes on this new panel:
  1. To facilitate the easier collation of these stats, I have removed the pager for the winners table on this page.
  2. I have replaced the three non-pop-up charts which were located above the winners table with the three pop-up charts located on the last row of the new panel. These new pop-up charts show the same information as the replaced charts, but are generated differently.
  3. The tournament winners table is now collapsible by clicking on it. This will allow you to see the new stats panel easier for years with a lot of tournaments. You can also click on the link in the introduction section.
  4. This page update shows some interesting stats at a glance, such as the low number of first round leaders that win events. This tends to be about 20% percent for the PGA Tour and around 15% for the European Tour. This goes up to about 60% and 55% for round three leaders for the respective tours in recent years.
  5. You might be surprised about the number of winners that aren't even in th top ten after round one, especially on the PGA Tour!
Just another way to make Golf Predictor even better! The stats on this new panel should help you make better in-tournament decisions. So, sign up today and reap the full benefits of Golf Predictor, the premium professional golf statistics site.
  

Monday, 9 March 2020

2020 - Week 11 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, The Players Championship (US PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. No Tiger Woods, but as usual, there's a very strong field for the so called "fifth major" in Florida, with forty seven of the top fifty in the world rankings teeing it up at Sawgrass. 

The Magical Kenya Open pres. by Absa due to be played on the European PGA Tour this week has been postponed due to the Coronavirus (Covid-19).

Sunday, 8 March 2020

2020 - Week 10 Winners

Jorge Campillo (ranked 26th by Golf Predictor) won the Commercial Bank Qatar Masters on the European PGA Tour. The 33 year old Spaniard won his second tour title in a battle with David Drysdale. After Campillo had thrown away three shots on the seventieth and seventy-first holes, he finished level with the Scot after the end of regulation play. It then took five extra holes to separate the pair, when Campillo holed yet another long putt to deny Drysdale his first win in 498 starts. Our top ranked player, Mike Lorenzo-Vera, missed the cut and we had twelve of the top twenty one plus ties (12/27) in the weak fielded event on a new course.

Tyrrell Hatton (ranked 20th by Golf Predictor) won the Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by Mastercard on the US PGA Tour. The 28 year old Englishman won his first tour title by coming through the field at Bay Hill. On a week of high attrition on the very demanding layout, Hatton saw off nearest challenger Marc Leishman to win by a single shot. Our top ranked player, Rory McIlroy, once again started very well, but faded the rest of the week. He somehow still managed another top five this season (tied 5th), despite a closing 76. Overall, we had nine of the top eighteen plus ties (9/23*) on the testing layout. 


*Day withdrew again & Molinari didn't play, promoting Morikawa into the top 23 of the rankings.

Monday, 2 March 2020

2020 - Week 10 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Commercial Bank Qatar Masters (European PGA Tour) and the Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by Mastercard (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. The European Tour stays in the Arabian Gulf this week, where the action moves to Qatar. A new course, a poor enough field and windy weather make it harder to call this year. Meanwhile, there is a much better field in Orlando, where although there is no Tiger Woods this year, ten of the top twenty in the world are teeing it up at Bay Hill. 

Sunday, 1 March 2020

2020 - Week 9 Winners

Sami Valimaki (ranked 59th by Golf Predictor) won the Oman Open on the European PGA Tour. The 21 year old Finn won his first tour title with a play-off victory over Brandon Stone in the windy conditions. Stone had birdied the last to edge out Adrien Saddier, but under pressure, Valimaki birdied two of the last three holes including the difficult final hole, to catch the South African on what was just his sixth tour start. After holing a ballsy putt on the second extra hole to stay in it, Valimaki won with a par on the third extra hole after Stone missed the green and failed to get up and down. Our top ranked player, Thomas Pieters, disappointingly missed the cut and we had only eight of the top eighteen plus ties (8/24) in the weak fielded and weather affected event.


Sungjae Im (ranked 8th by Golf Predictor) won The Honda Classic on the US PGA Tour. The hard working 21 year old Korean won his maiden tour title on one of the toughest tracks on the PGA Tour. Trailing by three overnight, Im got off to a fast start Sunday with four birdies in his first five holes, That allowed him to get into contention after third round leader Tommy Fleetwood came back to the field. Im then negotiated the difficult Bear Trap in an impressive two under par to post -6. He then had a short anxious wait before a poor Fleetwood approach at the par five last found the water, which led to the Englishman failing to catch him. Our top ranked player, defending champion Brooks Koepka, missed the cut and overall, we had seven of the top seventeen plus ties (7/20).

Monday, 24 February 2020

2020 - Week 9 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Oman Open (European PGA Tour) and The Honda Classic (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. The field is a bit stronger in Florida this year with six out of the top twenty in the world rankings teeing it up. Things are much worse in the Middle East, where they have to make do with seven golfers from the lower regions of the world's top one hundred. Note that the course history from the Challenge Tour event is not tracked by Golf Predictor.

2020 - Week 8 Winners

Patrick Reed (ranked 14th by Golf Predictor) won the WGC - Mexico Championship on the European/US PGA Tour. The 29 year old American won his second WGC title with a great finish in Mexico. After Bryson DeChambeau bogeyed the seventeenth, Reed took advantage with three late birdies to take a two shot lead up the last. After finding trouble off the tee, Reed chipped out and made a bogey five to pip The Scientist by a shot. Our top ranked player, Rory McIlroy, started brilliantly on Thursday, but failed to impress after that, finishing in tied fifth. Overall, we had twelve of the top eighteen plus ties (12/21).

Viktor Hovland (ranked 3rd by Golf Predictor) won the Puerto Rico Open on the US PGA Tour. The 22 year old became the first Norwegian to win on the PGA Tour with a one shot victory over Josh Teater. Hovland overcame a potentially disastrous treble bogey on the eleventh hole on Sunday to win his first tour itle in the second string event in Puerto Rico. The young Norwegian bounced back with an eagle on fifteen and a long birdie putt on the last to edge out Teater. Our top ranked player, Tom Lewis, missed the cut and we had seven of the top fourteen plus ties (7/19) in this usually difficult to predict event.

Tuesday, 18 February 2020

2020 WGC - Mexico Championship - Value DFS Picks

Based on the statistics on Golf Predictor for the 2020 WGC - Mexico Championship, here is my analysis of the tournament for DFS (DraftKings) purposes. Although there are some high profile absentees this year, there is still an impressive field teeing it up at Chapultepec. Anyone can pick the top golfers for their line-up, but it's the roster fillers that can make or break your chances. Therefore, I will concentrate on low and mid salary picks and exclude any golfers above $7600. Of course, you are free to disagree and log in to Golf Predictor to make your own informed choices for the event!

Approach

To maximise your scoring potential, it's important to get as many of your line-up performing well as possible. Therefore, I will look for golfers with a good recent record in each of the stats examined. There is no cut at WGC events and lower salaried golfers generally have little or no course or WGC experience. This makes the task more difficult than usual, but for this tournament, the stats I will look at are current form, course/tournament form and similar tournament (WGC) form.

Current Form Golfers

The following list of (mostly European Tour) golfers have relatively good recent records or long cut streaks in their salary bracket:

Zach Murray (Euro Tour) - $6000
Benjamin Hebert (Euro Tour, excluding one event) - $6300
Mike Lorenzo-Vera (Euro Tour, excluding last event) - $6400
Ryan Fox (Euro Tour, excluding one event) - $6400
Marcus Kinhult (Euro Tour, excluding one event) - $6500
Matt Wallace (Euro Tour, excluding one event) - $6600
Carlos Ortiz (excluding one event) - $6600
Lucas Herbert (Euro Tour) - $6700
Jazz Janewattananond - $6700
Brendan Todd - $6800
Lee Westwood (Euro Tour, excluding last event) - $6900 
Matthias Schwab - $6900 
Kurt Kitayama (mostly Euro Tour) - $7200
Robert MacIntyre (Euro Tour, excluding last event) - $7200
Tyrell Hatton (was out injured) - $7400
Corey Connors (excluding last event) - $7500
Victor Perez (Euro Tour) - $7600

Course/Tournament Specialists

Not many golfers below $7600 have good records (or any record!) in their salary bracket at the tournament itself (especially at the course). The few that do are:

Danny Willett (event) - $7000
Francesco Molinari - $7100
Charles Howell III - $7100
Tyrell Hatton - $7400
Graeme McDowell (event) - $7500
Rafa Cabrera Bello - $7600

WGC Performers

Not many golfers below $7600 have good records (or any record!) in WGC events in their salary bracket. Those that do are:

Lucas Glover - $6800 
Lee Westwood - $6900 
Francesco Molinari - $7100
Charles Howell III - $7100
Kevin Kisner - $7200
Kevin Na - $7300
Billy Horschel - $7300
Tyrell Hatton - $7400
Bernd Wiesberger - $7400
Byeong-Hun An - $7500
Graeme McDowell - $7500
Victor Perez (one event - 4th place) - $7600
Rafa Cabrera Bello - $7600

Summary

Hatton appears in all three categories, but he is coming back after a wrist operation so he might be a risky choice. Molinari, Perez, Cabrera Bello, Howell III, Westwood and McDowell all appear in two categories, so they could be worth considering as good low and mid value DFS DraftKings picks this week.


Monday, 17 February 2020

2020 - Week 8 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the WGC - Mexico Championship (European/US PGA Tour) and the Puerto Rico Open (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. Most eyes will be on Mexico, where a quality field has once again assembled for the first WGC event of the year. Despite several high profile absentees, there's still fifteen of top twenty in the world rankings playing in Mexico City. As usual, there's a second string line up for the Puerto Rico event as all the big names are playing in the WGC. That will give some of the lesser lights a great chance of tasting success on tour!